DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook

ACUS01 KWNS 210031
SWODY1
SPC AC 210029

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0729 PM CDT FRI SEP 20 2013

VALID 210100Z - 211200Z

...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

...TX COASTAL PLAINS TO THE CNTRL GULF STATES...

VERY MOIST AIRMASS RESIDES ACROSS THE UPPER TX COAST INTO MS WHERE
PW VALUES RANGE FROM 2-2.5 INCHES. REMNANTS OF TROPICAL ACTIVITY
HAVE SHIFTED EAST OF THE RIO GRANDE AND ELONGATED SW-NE CORRIDOR OF
CONVECTION WITH LIGHTNING SHOULD STEADILY ADVANCE EWD ACROSS THE
COASTAL PLAINS OF TX INTO THE LOWER MS VALLEY OVER THE NEXT FEW
HOURS. HEAVY RAIN IS THE PRIMARY THREAT WITH THIS CONVECTION.

...OH VALLEY/LOWER GREAT LAKES...

00Z SOUNDINGS FROM BUF AND PIT EXHIBIT WEAK BUOYANCY IN THE LOWEST
FEW KM WITH SBCAPE ON THE ORDER OF 500 J/KG. A NARROW BAND OF TSTMS
HAS DEVELOPED ALONG LEADING EDGE OF BROADER CONVECTIVE BAND AND THIS
ACTIVITY SHOULD ADVANCE INTO WRN NY/WRN PA BEFORE BOUNDARY LAYER
COOLING PROVES DETRIMENTAL TO UPDRAFT STRENGTH. LIGHTNING SHOULD
WANE OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS WITH LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING.

...SERN AZ/SRN NM...

ONSET OF DIURNAL COOLING WILL RESULT IN RAPIDLY WEAKENING TSTMS
ACROSS SERN AZ/SRN NM OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. UNTIL THEN SCT
CONVECTION SHOULD DRIFT TOWARD THE MEXICAN BORDER WITH LITTLE MORE
THAN A GUSTY WIND THREAT DUE TO RELATIVELY DRY SUB CLOUD LAYER.

..DARROW.. 09/21/2013

+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-
To unsubscribe from WX-STORM send e-mail to LISTSERV@LISTSERV.ILLINOIS.EDU with
"unsub wx-storm" in the body of your message. For more information write cnovy@cox.net.