DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook

ACUS01 KWNS 270046
SWODY1
SPC AC 270044

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0744 PM CDT THU SEP 26 2013

VALID 270100Z - 271200Z

...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

...INTERMOUNTAIN WEST/ROCKIES/PLAINS...
WHILE THE MAIN SURFACE CYCLONE CONTINUES TO MIGRATE NORTH
NORTHEASTWARD THROUGH MANITOBA OVERNIGHT...THE TRAILING SURFACE
FRONT MAY SLOW/STALL ACROSS NORTHWEST MINNESOTA AND THE EASTERN
DAKOTAS INTO THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS...AS POSITIVELY TILTED UPSTREAM
TROUGHING GRADUALLY TURNS EASTWARD ACROSS THE INTERMOUNTAIN REGION.
GIVEN THE PRESENCE OF MODEST LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE AHEAD OF THE
FRONT...MODELS SUGGEST THAT IT MAY NOT BE OUT OF THE QUESTION THAT
FRONTAL LIFT ACROSS NORTHWEST MINNESOTA COULD INITIATE SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT LATER THIS EVENING. ADDITIONAL ACTIVITY
THEN STILL APPEARS POSSIBLE LATE TONIGHT...WHERE LOWER/MID
TROPOSPHERIC WARM ADVECTION BECOMES ENHANCED ON THE NOSE OF A 50+ KT
SOUTHERLY 850 MB JET ACROSS PARTS OF THE MID MISSOURI VALLEY INTO
WESTERN MINNESOTA. HOWEVER...IT IS BECOMING INCREASINGLY CERTAIN
THAT DESTABILIZATION WILL NOT BECOME SUFFICIENT TO SUPPORT AN
APPRECIABLE SEVERE HAIL THREAT.

COLD AIR ALOFT WILL CONTINUE TO LAG WELL TO THE WEST OF THE SURFACE
FRONT...BUT IT IS CONTRIBUTING TO STEEPENING LAPSE RATES BASED IN
THE LOWER/MID-LEVEL BAROCLINIC ZONE EXTENDING ACROSS
EASTERN/SOUTHERN WYOMING...INTO NORTHEAST UTAH...WHERE SCATTERED
WEAK THUNDERSTORMS ARE ONGOING. THIS ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO
PERSIST AND PERHAPS INCREASE A BIT IN COVERAGE THIS EVENING...
BEFORE DIMINISHING WHILE POSSIBLY SPREADING NORTHEASTWARD THROUGH
PARTS OF THE WESTERN/CENTRAL DAKOTAS OVERNIGHT.

..KERR.. 09/27/2013

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