DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook

ACUS01 KWNS 141243
SWODY1
SPC AC 141240

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0740 AM CDT SAT SEP 14 2013

VALID 141300Z - 151200Z

...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

...SYNOPSIS/FORECAST...
AN EXPANSIVE COOL DOME WILL COVER MUCH OF THE ERN UNITED STATES ON
THE BACKSIDE OF A DEPARTING MID-LEVEL TROUGH. AWAY FROM THE CORE OF
THIS AIR MASS...WARMER/MOISTER AIR FROM FL AND ACROSS THE GULF COAST
INTO PARTS OF THE CNTRL/SRN PLAINS WILL SUPPORT ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED DIURNAL STORMS. MEANWHILE...A REINFORCING COLD FRONT WILL
ADVANCE SWD ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE NRN/CNTRL PLAINS...AS A MID-LEVEL
IMPULSE TRAVERSES THE NRN PLAINS AND PHASES WITH A SHORTWAVE TROUGH
AMPLIFYING FROM ONTARIO/MANITOBA INTO THE UPPER GREAT LAKES REGION.
LIFT ACCOMPANYING THE FRONT AND WITHIN THE EXIT REGION OF A LLJ
ATTENDANT TO THE IMPULSE WILL SUPPORT ISOLATED TO SCATTERED STORMS
OVER THE N-CNTRL CONUS THROUGH TONIGHT...AND THIS ACTIVITY WILL HAVE
A TENDENCY OF BEING UNDERCUT BY THE FRONT. SCATTERED STORMS WILL
ALSO OCCUR OVER THE WRN STATES IN ASSOCIATION WITH ENHANCED MOISTURE
COILING AROUND A DECAYING MID-LEVEL CYCLONE. WHILE AN ISOLATED
MARGINALLY SVR STORM CANNOT BE ENTIRELY RULED OUT AROUND PEAK
HEATING...DEEP SHEAR WILL REMAIN WEAK IN ANY AREAS OF SUBSTANTIVE
BOUNDARY-LAYER BUOYANCY AMIDST POOR MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES SUCH THAT
THE SVR POTENTIAL WILL BE VERY LOW CONUS-WIDE.

..COHEN/THOMPSON.. 09/14/2013

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