Saturday, September 28, 2013

DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook

ACUS01 KWNS 290040
SWODY1
SPC AC 290038

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0738 PM CDT SAT SEP 28 2013

VALID 290100Z - 291200Z

...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

...PACIFIC NORTHWEST...
WEAKENING AND VEERING OF LOW-LEVEL FLOW FIELDS APPEARS UNDERWAY TO
THE WEST OF THE WASHINGTON CASCADES...WITH A TRANSITION TO A MORE
SHOWERY POST-FRONTAL ONSHORE FLOW EXPECTED THROUGH THE 02-04Z TIME
FRAME. COOLING ALOFT MAY EVENTUALLY CONTRIBUTE TO MORE FAVORABLE
THERMODYNAMIC PROFILES FOR OCCASIONAL CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING IN
CONVECTION NEAR COASTAL AREAS LATE TONIGHT...BUT SEVERE WEATHER
POTENTIAL APPEARS NEGLIGIBLE.

...WESTERN GULF COAST NORTHWARD INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION...
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE INTO THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS ALONG/AHEAD OF THE EASTWARD/SOUTHEASTWARD ADVANCING
SURFACE FRONT...FROM PARTS OF CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN TEXAS
NORTHEASTWARD INTO THE OZARK PLATEAU. GUIDANCE IS ALSO SUGGESTIVE
THAT LAPSE RATES COULD STILL STEEPEN SUFFICIENTLY TO SUPPORT WEAK
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY...BASED ABOVE THE FRONTAL INVERSION...ACROSS
PARTS OF SOUTHEASTERN MISSOURI AND ILLINOIS...PERHAPS AS FAR NORTH
AS WESTERN LOWER MICHIGAN BY LATE TONIGHT.

..KERR.. 09/29/2013

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