ACUS02 KWNS 140600
SWODY2
SPC AC 140559
DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1259 AM CDT SAT SEP 14 2013
VALID 151200Z - 161200Z
...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...
...SYNOPSIS...
AN UPPER RIDGE WILL BE PREVALENT OVER THE SOUTHEAST QUADRANT OF THE
CONUS SUNDAY...WHILE A PROGRESSIVE BELT OF AMPLIFIED WESTERLIES
PERSISTS OVER CANADA AND THE NORTHERN THIRD OF THE CONUS. AN UPPER
TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO AMPLIFY/SPREAD EAST-SOUTHEASTWARD OVER THE
NORTHEAST STATES AND NEW ENGLAND...WHILE AN ADDITIONAL TROUGH
OVERSPREADS THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST SUNDAY NIGHT/EARLY MONDAY.
...SOUTH-CENTRAL PLAINS...
NEAR A SOUTHEASTWARD-MOVING FRONT...AT LEAST WIDELY SCATTERED
SURFACE BASED TSTMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP/INCREASE SUNDAY
AFTERNOON WITHIN A SOUTHWEST-NORTHEAST ORIENTED CORRIDOR INCLUDING
SOUTHERN/EASTERN KS INTO NORTHERN OK/MO. ALTHOUGH VERTICAL SHEAR
WILL BE MODEST /25-30 KT OF EFFECTIVE SHEAR/...FRONTAL UPLIFT AND
RELATIVELY STRONG HEATING WITH UPWARDS OF 1000-1500 J/KG MLCAPE
SOUTH OF THE FRONT COULD ALLOW FOR ISOLATED SEVERE TSTMS SUNDAY
AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING. LOCALIZED DOWNBURSTS WOULD BE THE MAIN RISK
GIVEN THIS SCENARIO...BUT A PULSE-TYPE HAIL RISK CANNOT BE ENTIRELY
DISCOUNTED.
...PACIFIC NORTHWEST...
UPPER TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED HEIGHT FALLS/FORCING FOR ASCENT ARE
EXPECTED TO OVERSPREAD THE REGION ON SUNDAY...WITH AN AFTERNOON
INCREASE OF TSTMS PROBABLE ESPECIALLY ACROSS CENTRAL/EASTERN ORE
INTO WA/ID. WHILE ONLY A RELATIVELY MODEST AMOUNT OF BUOYANCY
/GENERALLY 500 J PER KG MLCAPE OR LESS/ IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE
REGION...SUFFICIENT MOISTURE IN THE PRESENCE OF VERY STEEP/DIURNALLY
MAXIMIZED LAPSE RATES AND STRENGTHENING VERTICAL SHEAR SUGGEST THAT
SOME STRONGER/POSSIBLY SEVERE TSTMS COULD OCCUR SUNDAY
AFTERNOON/EVENING...WITH WIND/HAIL POSSIBLE ON AN ISOLATED BASIS.
..GUYER.. 09/14/2013
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