DAY2SVR: Nws Storm Prediction Center Norman Ok

ACUS02 KWNS 230538
SWODY2
SPC AC 230536

DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1236 AM CDT MON SEP 23 2013

VALID 241200Z - 251200Z

...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

...SYNOPSIS...
A SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER THE CNTRL CONUS SHOULD DAMPEN SOMEWHAT
AS IT PROGRESSES INTO THE MIDWEST/LOWER OH VALLEY BY EARLY WED.
ASSOCIATED SURFACE COLD FRONT SHOULD REACH THE MID/LOWER MS VALLEY.
A WEAK WARM FRONT WILL ADVANCE NEWD ACROSS PARTS OF THE MID-SOUTH
AND SOUTHEAST. IN THE WEST...A LARGE-SCALE UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH WILL
AMPLIFY INLAND.

...MS/AL/TN...
AS A WARM FRONT ADVANCES N/NEWD BEGINNING D1...A MARITIME TROPICAL
AIR MASS WILL PUSH INLAND FROM THE GULF COAST AND SHOULD YIELD UPPER
60S SURFACE DEW POINTS AS FAR N AS THE TN BORDER WITH MS/AL BY TUE
AFTERNOON. DESPITE THE DAMPENING NATURE OF THE TROUGH...A BELT OF
30-40 KT WLYS AT 500 MB SHOULD OVERSPREAD THE WARM SECTOR. THIS
COULD YIELD A LOOSELY-ORGANIZED CLUSTER OR TWO AMIDST CONVECTION
INCREASING IN COVERAGE BY AFTERNOON AS SURFACE HEATING BOOSTS MLCAPE
TO NEAR 500-1000 J/KG. MARGINAL MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND ANEMIC
LOW-LEVEL FLOW SHOULD TEMPER OVERALL SEVERE RISK...BUT LOCALLY
DAMAGING WINDS MAY OCCUR IN THE STRONGEST UPDRAFTS.

..GRAMS.. 09/23/2013

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