DAY3SVR: Nws Storm Prediction Center Norman Ok

ACUS03 KWNS 110731
SWODY3
SPC AC 110729

DAY 3 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0229 AM CDT WED SEP 11 2013

VALID 131200Z - 141200Z

...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

...CAROLINAS...
AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH IS FORECAST TO DIG SEWD ACROSS THE OH VALLEY
ON FRIDAY AS A COLD FRONT ADVANCES SEWD INTO SRN AND CNTRL
APPALACHIAN MTNS. AHEAD OF THE FRONT...MODERATE INSTABILITY IS
FORECAST TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE CAROLINAS WITH THUNDERSTORMS
INITIATING ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE BOUNDARY DURING THE EARLY
AFTERNOON. FORECAST SOUNDINGS AT 21Z FRI FOR COLUMBIA SC AND RALEIGH
NC SHOW SBCAPE AROUND 1500 J/KG WITH 20 TO 30 KT OF DEEP LAYER
SHEAR. THIS COMBINED WITH STEEP LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES MAY BE ENOUGH
FOR A MARGINAL WIND DAMAGE THREAT. SOME UNCERTAINTY EXISTS FOR THIS
FORECAST BASED ON MODEL DISAGREEMENT ON THE POSITION OF THE FRONT BY
MID-AFTERNOON. HAVE TAKEN A MODEL CONSENSUS IN ORDER TO PLACE THE 5
PERCENT SEVERE PROBABILITY FROM ERN GA ENEWD TO THE CAPE HATERAS NC
VICINITY.

..BROYLES.. 09/11/2013

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