ACUS11 KWNS 072323
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 072322
MTZ000-080115-
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1853
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0622 PM CDT SAT SEP 07 2013
AREAS AFFECTED...PARTS OF WRN AND CENTRAL MT
CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY
VALID 072322Z - 080115Z
PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...20 PERCENT
SUMMARY...ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE FORECAST TO CONTINUE DEVELOPING
OVER WRN MT...WHICH WILL THEN SHIFT ENEWD WITH TIME -- ACCOMPANIED
BY POTENTIAL FOR A LOCALLY DAMAGING WIND GUST OR TWO AND/OR
MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL.
DISCUSSION...LATEST VISIBLE AND RADAR LOOPS SHOW CONVECTION --
INCLUDING ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS -- DEVELOPING INVOF THE HIGHER
TERRAIN OF WRN MT ATTM. THE CONVECTION IS DEVELOPING IN AN AREA
WHERE DIURNAL HEATING OF A RELATIVELY MOIST LOW-LEVEL AIRMASS HAS
YIELDED 500 TO 1000 J/KG MIXED-LAYER CAPE -- AIDED BY COOL MID-LEVEL
TEMPS/STEEP LAPSE RATES E OF THE MAIN UPPER CIRCULATION CENTER.
AS A 35 TO 40 KT SWLY MID-LEVEL JET STREAK ROTATES NEWD ACROSS THIS
REGION PER MODEL FORECASTS AND AS SUBSTANTIATED BY RECENT TFX /GREAT
FALLS MT/ WSR-88D VWP...THE STRONGEST OF THESE CELLS MAY BECOME
SUSTAINED/ORGANIZED AND THUS BE CAPABLE OF BRIEF/ISOLATED SEVERE
WEATHER PRODUCTION. THIS RISK WILL LIKELY LAST FOR THE NEXT 2-4
HOURS...AFTER WHICH DIURNAL COOLING OF THE BOUNDARY LAYER PROVES
INCREASINGLY HOSTILE -- PARTICULARLY FOR DAMAGING WINDS.
..GOSS/EDWARDS.. 09/07/2013
...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
ATTN...WFO...BYZ...GGW...TFX...MSO...
LAT...LON 48661318 47981121 47120919 46780824 46040877 45591015
45641215 46221274 47901341 48661318
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