ACUS11 KWNS 082249
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 082249
MTZ000-090045-
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1860
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0549 PM CDT SUN SEP 08 2013
AREAS AFFECTED...PARTS OF CENTRAL AND ERN MT
CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 516...
VALID 082249Z - 090045Z
THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 516
CONTINUES.
SUMMARY...ISOLATED SEVERE THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS CENTRAL MT...AND
IS SLOWLY SPREADING EWD WITH TIME.
DISCUSSION...A BROKEN LINE OF STRONG/POTENTIALLY SEVERE STORMS
CONTINUES TO EVOLVE ACROSS PARTS OF CENTRAL/N CENTRAL MT...FROM JUST
E OF HVR /HAVRE MT/ TO NEAR AND S OF LWT /LEWISTOWN MT/. THE
CONVECTION IS EVOLVING WITHIN A BAND OF ASCENT JUST AHEAD OF THE
NWRN MT UPPER CIRCULATION CENTER...WHERE A MODESTLY BUOYANT
ENVIRONMENT CHARACTERIZED BY MIXED-LAYER CAPE IN THE 500 TO 1000
J/KG RANGE EXISTS PER OBJECTIVE ANALYSES.
REPORTS OF LARGE HAIL HAVE BEEN RECEIVED FROM STORMS WITHIN THIS
BAND EARLIER...AND WHILE THREAT FOR HAIL CONTINUES...THE RISK FOR
LOCALLY DAMAGING WINDS APPEARS TO BE INCREASING LOCALLY AS
WELL...CORRESPONDING TO THE INCREASED LINEAR ORGANIZATION OF THE
STORMS. THOUGH EWD EXTENT OF THE MAIN AXIS OF INSTABILITY IS
LIMITED...SEVERE RISK IS EXPECTED FOR AT LEAST THE NEXT 2-3 HOURS AS
CONVECTION CONTINUES SHIFTING EWD.
..GOSS.. 09/08/2013
...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
ATTN...WFO...BYZ...GGW...TFX...
LAT...LON 48760878 48780739 47560659 45180661 45000951 45651032
46631014 47190946 47840943 48660983 48760878
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