ACUS11 KWNS 190127
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 190127
MNZ000-SDZ000-NDZ000-190330-
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1894
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0827 PM CDT WED SEP 18 2013
AREAS AFFECTED...NERN SD...SERN ND...NWRN MN
CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 527...528...
VALID 190127Z - 190330Z
THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH
527...528...CONTINUES.
SUMMARY...A FEW SEVERE STORMS SHOULD PERSIST INTO THE EVENING WITH
LARGE HAIL AND LOCALLY DAMAGING WIND THREAT.
DISCUSSION...A CLUSTER OF STORMS CONTINUES TO PROPAGATE RAPIDLY EWD
ACROSS THE MO RIVER BEHIND THE SURFACE TROUGH WITH NLY SURFACE
WINDS. DESPITE THE COOLER AIR...SUBSTANTIAL MOISTURE REMAINS PER 00Z
ABR SOUNDING. ALTHOUGH SOME WEAKENING HAS OCCURRED ON THE SRN
PERIPHERY OF THIS CLUSTER...A FEW SEVERE COULD PERSIST GIVEN BETTER
MOISTURE TO THE E AND CONTINUED COOLING ALOFT WHICH MAY OFFSET THE
BOUNDARY LAYER COOLING SOMEWHAT.
MEANWHILE...CELLS WERE SLOW MOVING ACROSS NERN SD/SERN ND ALONG THE
SFC TROUGH AND WILL CONTINUE TO POSE MAINLY A HAIL THREAT GIVEN
MARGINAL SUPERCELL CHARACTERISTICS. GIVEN PROPENSITY FOR THESE CELLS
TO CREATE OUTFLOW...THE TORNADO THREAT SHOULD REMAIN LOW.
TO THE N ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF ND...A PRIMARY SYNOPTIC COLD FRONT
WILL CONTINUE TO SURGE EWD...AND AT LEAST ISOLATED STRONG TO SEVERE
CELLS ARE NOW FORMING OVER NWRN ND. DEEP LAYER SHEAR WILL REMAIN
FAVORABLE FOR SOME FORWARD PROPAGATING STORMS AND MIDLEVEL LAPSE
RATES ARE STEEP. WITH THE BOUNDARY LAYER COOLING FURTHER...HAIL
WOULD APPEAR TO BE THE MAIN THREAT.
..JEWELL.. 09/19/2013
...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
ATTN...WFO...MPX...FGF...FSD...ABR...BIS...
LAT...LON 47580304 48710376 49010388 49089526 48129492 46419483
45599618 44799758 44569816 44639901 44910041 45810097
46730258 47580304
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