MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 1905

ACUS11 KWNS 222009
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 222008
COZ000-NMZ000-AZZ000-UTZ000-222145-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1905
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0308 PM CDT SUN SEP 22 2013

AREAS AFFECTED...ERN UTAH AND ARIZONA INTO WESTERN COLORADO AND NEW
MEXICO

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 532...533...

VALID 222008Z - 222145Z

THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH
532...533...CONTINUES.

SUMMARY...RISK FOR SEVERE HAIL/LOCALIZED SEVERE WIND GUSTS CONTINUES
ACROSS THE WW AREAS. DAMAGING WIND POTENTIAL MAY INCREASE BY
22-23Z...AND TRENDS WILL BE MONITORED FOR THE POSSIBILITY OF AN
INCREASING SEVERE WEATHER THREAT WHICH COULD REQUIRE AN ADDITIONAL
WATCH ACROSS PARTS OF COLORADO TO THE EAST OF WW 532.

DISCUSSION...NUMEROUS...DISCRETE THUNDERSTORMS ARE ONGOING ACROSS
THE REGION IN THE PRESENCE OF 35-50+ KT SOUTHWESTERLY DEEP LAYER
MEAN FLOW...WITH STRONG SHEAR SUPPORTIVE OF SUPERCELLS. STRONGEST
CELLS ARE ROOTED IN AN UNSTABLE BOUNDARY LAYER LAYER...WHICH WILL
CONTINUE TO DESTABILIZE WITH ADDITIONAL INSOLATION THIS AFTERNOON
...PARTICULARLY ACROSS THE PLATEAU REGION OF NORTHEASTERN ARIZONA
INTO NORTHWESTERN NEW MEXICO.

A MID-LEVEL LOW CENTER...NOW NEAR MILFORD UT...APPEARS TO BE
DEVELOPING WITHIN THE VIGOROUS UPSTREAM SHORT WAVE TROUGH...WITH AN
AREA OF 60-90 METER 500 MB HEIGHT FALLS LIKELY TO OVERSPREAD MUCH OF
THE CURRENT WATCH AREAS BETWEEN NOW AND 23/00Z.

WDSS MESH DATA HAS INDICATED THE PRESENCE OF SEVERE HAIL IN THE
STRONGER CELLS...WHICH CONTINUE TO INTENSIFY. SOME OF THIS ACTIVITY
MAY BEGIN TO CONSOLIDATE INTO A SQUALL LINE ON THE LEADING EDGE OF
STRONGER MID-LEVEL FORCING DURING THE NEXT FEW HOURS...ACCOMPANIED
BY INCREASING POTENTIAL FOR STRONG WIND GUSTS AS IT APPROACHES THE
CONTINENTAL DIVIDE.

..KERR.. 09/22/2013

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...PUB...BOU...ABQ...GJT...TWC...FGZ...SLC...

LAT...LON 39071124 40321032 40160615 37800576 35300669 33880822
33580957 34701096 37761082 39071124

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