MESO: Nws Weather Prediction Center College Park Md

AWUS01 KWNH 142316
FFGMPD
COZ000-NEZ000-WYZ000-150200-

MESOSCALE PRECIPITATION DISCUSSION 0251
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
715 PM EDT SAT SEP 14 2013

AREAS AFFECTED...NORTHEAST CO...SOUTHEAST WY...SOUTHWEST NE
PANHANDLE

CONCERNING...HEAVY RAINFALL...FLASH FLOODING POSSIBLE

VALID 142314Z - 150200Z

SUMMARY...AFTER A BRIEF REPRIEVE FROM THE HEAVY
RAINFALL...ADDITIONAL CONVECTION CAPABLE OF PRODUCING HEAVY
RAINFALL MAY DEVELOP LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING GIVEN
DEEP MOISTURE STILL IN PLACE AND DESTABILIZATION GIVEN INCREASING
AMOUNTS OF SUNSHINE.

DISCUSSION...MID AFTERNOON SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS BREAKS IN THE
CLOUD COVER OVER PARTS OF COLORADO...WHERE PRECIPITABLE WATER
VALUES REMAINED EXTREMELY HIGH AND MESOSCALE MODELS STILL DEPICT A
DEEP SOUTHEASTERLY UPSLOPE FLOW. THIS SHOULD LEAD TO LI VALUES
DECREASING TO AROUND MINUS 6 AS ANOTHER BATCH OF MOISTURE MOVES
NORTHWARDS AND ENCOUNTERS THE INCREASINGLY UNSTABLE AIRMASS.

THE LATE MORNING RAP AND HRRR DEPICT THIS SCENARIO
REASONABLY...WHICH INCREASES THE CONFIDENCE IN MODEL FORECASTS OF
MORE CONVECTION FORMING AND MOVING NORTH ALONG THE FRONT RANGE.
ONE POTENTIAL LIMITING FACTOR MAY BE THE VEERING AND...AND
THEREFORE CROSS MOUNTAIN FLOW...AT OR ABOVE 700 MB IN RESPONSE TO
LOW PRESSURE AT MID LEVELS OVER PARTS OF UT.

BANN

...PLEASE SEE WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...GLD...PUB...BOU...CYS...

ATTN...RFC...ABRFC...MBRFC...WGRFC...

LAT...LON 38090422 39630466 40910458 41430377 39300266 38090422

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