MESO: Nws Weather Prediction Center College Park Md

AWUS01 KWNH 150207
FFGMPD
NEZ000-KSZ000-COZ000-150500-

MESOSCALE PRECIPITATION DISCUSSION 0252
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
1006 PM EDT SAT SEP 14 2013

AREAS AFFECTED...NORTHEAST CO...EXTREME SW NEBRASKA...EXTREME
NORTHWEST KS

CONCERNING...HEAVY RAINFALL...FLASH FLOODING POSSIBLE

VALID 150206Z - 150500Z

SUMMARY...HEAVY RAINFALL WILL CONTINUE THROUGH 15/05Z ACROSS PARTS
OF NORTHEAST CO AND ADJACENT PARTS OF SOUTHWEST NEB AND NORTHWEST
KS WHERE CAPES REMAINED HIGH AND LIGHT MID LEVEL WINDS.

DISCUSSION...RAINFALL RATES OF UP TO 2 INCHES PER HOUR HAVE BEEN
REPORTED THIS EVENING OVER PARTS OF CO. IN THE SHORT TERM...THESE
CELLS WERE PROPAGATING AWAY FROM THE AREAS WORST HIT BY EXCESSIVE
RAFL EARLIER IN THE WEEK INTO AN AREA WHERE FFG VALUES ARE
SOMEWHAT HIGHER. EVEN SO...RAINFALL RATES FROM SOME OF THESE
CELLS WERE COMPARABLE WITH 1 HOUR AND 3 HOURLY FFG VALUES IN
NORTHEAST CO AND ADJACENT PORTIONS OF NEB/KS.

GIVEN MESOSCALE GUIDANCE WHICH MAINTAINED NEARLY 2000 J PER KG
CAPE...PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES FROM 135 TO 170 PCT OF NORMAL AND
LIGHT WINDS OVER THE AREA THROUGH 05Z...WILL CONTINUE TO HIGHLIGHT
THE POSSIBILITY OF ADDITIONAL FLASH FLOODING IN THIS AREA.

BANN

...PLEASE SEE WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...LBF...GLD...PUB...BOU...

ATTN...RFC...ABRFC...MBRFC...WGRFC...

LAT...LON 40510405 40930367 40780250 40430180 39910160 39230210
38300415 38730440 39690437 40510405

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