Monday, September 2, 2013

WATCHES: Severe Thunderstorm Watch Number 510

WWUS20 KWNS 021919
SEL0
SPC WW 021919
NYZ000-PAZ000-LOZ000-030200-

URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH NUMBER 510
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
320 PM EDT MON SEP 2 2013

THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A

* SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF
A LARGE PORTION OF NEW YORK
MUCH OF THE NORTHERN HALF OF PENNSYLVANIA
LAKE ONTARIO

* EFFECTIVE THIS MONDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING FROM 320 PM UNTIL
1000 PM EDT.

* PRIMARY THREATS INCLUDE...
SEVERAL LARGE HAIL EVENTS WITH A FEW VERY LARGE HAIL EVENTS TO 2
INCHES IN DIAMETER POSSIBLE
SEVERAL DAMAGING WIND GUSTS TO 65 MPH POSSIBLE

THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 80
STATUTE MILES EAST AND WEST OF A LINE FROM 90 MILES EAST
NORTHEAST OF WATERTOWN NEW YORK TO 20 MILES SOUTHEAST OF DUBOIS
PENNSYLVANIA. FOR A COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE THE
ASSOCIATED WATCH OUTLINE UPDATE (WOUS64 KWNS WOU0).

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

REMEMBER...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE
FAVORABLE FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH
AREA. PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR
THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS
AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS. SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAN AND OCCASIONALLY
DO PRODUCE TORNADOES.

&&

DISCUSSION...THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE TO GRADUALLY INCREASE/ORGANIZE
THIS AFTERNOON IN A DESTABILIZING ENVIRONMENT AHEAD OF AN ADVANCING
SURFACE COLD FRONT AND ASSOCIATED UPPER LOW/TROUGH.
WLY DEEP-LAYER WIND FIELD CONTINUES TO INCREASE WITH TIME ACROSS
THIS REGION AS STRONGER FLOW ON THE SOUTH SIDE OF THE UPPER LOW
SPREADS EASTWARD...AND THIS COMBINATION OF INCREASING CAPE AND SHEAR
SHOULD SUPPORT BANDS OF STRONG/SEVERE STORMS THROUGH THE AFTERNOON
AND EARLY EVENING. WHILE LARGE HAIL WILL BE A PRIMARY SEVERE
RISK...THREAT FOR LOCALLY DAMAGING WINDS IS LIKELY TO INCREASE IN
THE NEXT 1-2 HOURS AS STORMS LOCALLY GROW UPSCALE INTO SMALL-SCALE
LINES.

AVIATION...A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH HAIL SURFACE AND ALOFT
TO 2 INCHES. EXTREME TURBULENCE AND SURFACE WIND GUSTS TO 55
KNOTS. A FEW CUMULONIMBI WITH MAXIMUM TOPS TO 500. MEAN STORM
MOTION VECTOR 28035.


...GOSS

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