DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook

ACUS01 KWNS 011226
SWODY1
SPC AC 011223

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0723 AM CDT TUE OCT 01 2013

VALID 011300Z - 021200Z

...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

...SYNOPSIS...

A BELT OF STRONG MID TO UPPER-LEVEL FLOW WILL BE MAINTAINED ACROSS
THE NRN TIER OF STATES THROUGH THE D1 PERIOD. A COUPLE OF MORE
PROMINENT SHORT-WAVE TROUGHS ARE EMBEDDED WITHIN THIS HIGH-MOMENTUM
AIR STREAM...ONE OF WHICH WILL TRACK FROM SRN MANITOBA/WRN ONTARIO
INTO QUEBEC...AND ANOTHER WHICH WILL TRANSLATE FROM OFF THE PACIFIC
NW COAST TO NRN HIGH PLAINS. ELSEWHERE...A LOWER-LATITUDE VORTICITY
MAXIMUM OVER LA WILL SLOWLY DRIFT NEWD.

IN THE LOW LEVELS...A COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THE FORMER IMPULSE
MENTIONED ABOVE WILL ADVANCE THROUGH THE UPPER GREAT LAKES. THE
SWRN EXTENSION OF THE FRONT WILL STALL OVER THE CNTRL OR SRN HIGH
PLAINS BEFORE RETREATING POLEWARD OWING TO LEE CYCLOGENESIS OVER THE
NRN HIGH PLAINS.

...PACIFIC NW TODAY...

HEIGHT FALLS/FORCING FOR ASCENT WILL INCREASE ACROSS REGION IN
ASSOCIATION WITH THE ABOVE-MENTIONED SHORT-WAVE TROUGH MOVING
ONSHORE. COLD MIDLEVEL TEMPERATURES ACCOMPANYING THIS SYSTEM WILL
PROMOTE STEEPENING LAPSE RATES AND THE POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED STORM
DEVELOPMENT.

...GULF COAST/LOWER MS VALLEY TODAY INTO THIS EVENING...

DEEP-LAYER FORCING FOR ASCENT ATTENDANT TO THE LA VORTICITY MAXIMUM
WILL INTERACT WITH A VERY MOIST AND MODESTLY UNSTABLE AIR MASS TO
YIELD WIDELY SCATTERED TSTMS BY AFTERNOON FROM THE LA COAST INTO THE
LOWER MS VALLEY. ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED STORM DEVELOPMENT IS
ANTICIPATED ELSEWHERE ALONG THE GULF COAST...NAMELY INVOF
STRENGTHENING SEA-BREEZE CIRCULATIONS WHERE LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE IS
ENHANCED.

...NRN PLAINS LATE TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING...

STRENGTHENING WAA/ISENTROPIC ASCENT AT THE TERMINUS OF A NOCTURNAL
LOW-LEVEL WIND MAXIMUM WILL COMBINE WITH INCREASING MOISTURE ABOVE
THE RETREATING WARM FRONT AND STEEPENING MIDLEVEL LAPSE RATES TO
FOSTER SHOWER AND ISOLATED STORM DEVELOPMENT NEAR THE END OF THE D1
PERIOD.

..MEAD/MOSIER.. 10/01/2013

+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-
To unsubscribe from WX-STORM send e-mail to LISTSERV@LISTSERV.ILLINOIS.EDU with
"unsub wx-storm" in the body of your message. For more information write cnovy@cox.net.