DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook

ACUS01 KWNS 160048
SWODY1
SPC AC 160046

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0746 PM CDT TUE OCT 15 2013

VALID 160100Z - 161200Z

...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

...SOUTHWEST TX...
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS WEST SOUTHWEST FLOW OVER NRN MEXICO AND
SOUTHCENTRAL TX WITH A PLUME OF MID-LEVEL MOISTURE EXTENDING ENEWD
ACROSS THE SRN PLAINS. AN IMPULSE APPEARS TO BE MOVING THROUGH THE
FLOW ACROSS THE RIO GRANDE RIVER VALLEY. AT THE SFC...A COLD FRONT
EXTENDS SWWD ACROSS THE TX HILL COUNTRY TO NEAR DEL RIO AND SWWD TO
A LOW IN NRN MEXICO. SFC DEWPOINTS AHEAD OF THE FRONT ARE AROUND 70
F WITH MLCAPE ESTIMATED IN THE 500 TO 1000 J/KG RANGE. THIS COMBINED
WITH 40 TO 50 KT OF 0-6 KM SHEAR SHOULD BE ENOUGH FOR A MARGINAL
SEVERE THREAT EARLY THIS EVENING. PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES OF
GREATER THAN 2 INCHES COUPLED WITH ABUNDANT MOISTURE IN THE BOUNDARY
LAYER COULD BE ENOUGH FOR MARGINALLY SEVERE WET DOWNBURSTS FOR A FEW
MORE HOURS THIS EVENING.

..BROYLES.. 10/16/2013

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