DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook

ACUS01 KWNS 020043
SWODY1
SPC AC 020041

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0741 PM CDT TUE OCT 01 2013

VALID 020100Z - 021200Z

...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

...SYNOPSIS/FORECAST...
SEVERE TSTMS ARE NOT EXPECTED TONIGHT ACROSS THE CONUS. AMID A
RELATIVELY STRONG BELT OF WESTERLIES ALOFT...A SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL
CONTINUE TO SPREAD EASTWARD OVER THE NORTHERN INTERMOUNTAIN REGION
TONIGHT. A TSTM OR TWO MAY REMAIN POSSIBLE THIS EVENING ACROSS THE
NORTHERN INTERMOUNTAIN REGION...BUT THE OVERALL TSTM
POTENTIAL/COVERAGE WILL REMAIN QUITE LIMITED. FARTHER EAST...AN
INCREASING WARM ADVECTION REGIME COULD LEAD TO PRECIPITATION
DEVELOPMENT BY EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING ACROSS PARTS OF THE
DAKOTAS...ALTHOUGH OBSERVED 00Z SOUNDINGS/MODEL FORECAST SOUNDINGS
IMPLY ONLY A MARGINAL POTENTIAL THAT ANY SUCH CONVECTION WILL
PRODUCE LIGHTNING.

ELSEWHERE...NEAR A SLOW-MOVING/WEAK UPPER LOW...SHOWERS/TSTMS WILL
CONTINUE TONIGHT ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE LOWER MS RIVER
VALLEY/ARKLATEX...ALTHOUGH OVERALL TSTM COVERAGE SHOULD DIMINISH AS
THE BOUNDARY LAYER COOLS. AS SAMPLED BY REGIONAL 00Z OBSERVED
SOUNDINGS...FACTORS SUCH AS WEAK LAPSE RATES ALOFT AND MEAGER
VERTICAL SHEAR SHOULD PRECLUDE SEVERE TSTMS.

..GUYER.. 10/02/2013

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