DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook

ACUS01 KWNS 180057
SWODY1
SPC AC 180055

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0755 PM CDT THU OCT 17 2013

VALID 180100Z - 181200Z

...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

...NORTHEAST...
A NARROW LINE OF LOW-TOPPED CONVECTION IS ONGOING ACROSS ERN PA AND
WILL CONTINUE TO SHIFT EWD THIS EVENING DOWNSTREAM OF A SHORTWAVE
TROUGH MOVING FROM THE LOWER GREAT LAKES TO THE ST LAWRENCE VALLEY.
DESTABILIZATION AHEAD OF THE FRONTAL CONVECTION IS MINIMAL WITH ONLY
SCANT BUOYANCY /PER 00Z IAD RAOB/ FOR A FEW LIGHTNING STRIKES.
DESPITE 30-40 KT LOW-LEVEL WLYS BEHIND THE LINE SAMPLED IN STATE
COLLEGE PA VWP DATA...OBSERVED SURFACE WIND GUSTS WILL REMAIN BELOW
SEVERE LIMITS.

...SRN PLAINS...
THE SEWD PROGRESSION OF A SHORTWAVE TROUGH ACROSS THE CNTRL/SRN
ROCKIES WILL CONTRIBUTE TO THE ENHANCEMENT OF A NOCTURNAL LLJ AND
THE POLEWARD RETURN OF A PARTIALLY MODIFIED AIR MASS THROUGH THE SRN
HIGH PLAINS. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED STORMS SHOULD FORM IN
THE 09-12Z TIME FRAME AS FORCING FOR ASCENT IS STRENGTHENED THROUGH
WAA/ISENTROPIC LIFT NEAR THE TERMINUS OF THE LLJ. CLOUD-BEARING
SHEAR MAY BECOME APPRECIABLE...BUT LIMITED BUOYANCY SHOULD MITIGATE
THE RISK OF SEVERE HAIL.

..GRAMS.. 10/18/2013

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