DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook

ACUS01 KWNS 021956
SWODY1
SPC AC 021953

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0253 PM CDT WED OCT 02 2013

VALID 022000Z - 031200Z

...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

...CNTRL PLAINS...MID-MO VALLEY...
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION REMAINS LARGELY ON TRACK WITH MINOR CHANGES TO
OUTLOOK PROBABILITIES. IN ADDITION TO A FEW ONGOING PRE-FRONTAL
STORMS OVER THE MID-MO VALLEY...MORE WIDESPREAD STORM COVERAGE IS
ANTICIPATED THIS EVENING INTO TONIGHT ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE COLD
FRONT CURRENTLY FROM SERN SD INTO SWRN NEB. DEEP-LAYER SHEAR WILL
REMAIN WEAK WITHIN THE WARM SECTOR AND BE THE MAIN LIMITING FACTOR
TO ORGANIZED SEVERE HAIL/WIND POTENTIAL.

..GRAMS.. 10/02/2013

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1127 AM CDT WED OCT 02 2013/

...SYNOPSIS...
AMPLIFICATION OF THE LARGE-SCALE PATTERN IS UNDERWAY AS A SHORTWAVE
TROUGH DIGS SEWD FROM THE PAC NW COAST TO THE NRN GREAT BASIN.
DOWNSTREAM...A WEAK LEAD SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL MOVE ENEWD TODAY FROM
WRN KS TO SE NEB. A SEPARATE MIDLEVEL TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED
TROPICAL MOISTURE PLUME WILL DRIFT NEWD FROM THE LOWER MS VALLEY
TOWARD TN/KY...WITH PRIMARILY DIURNAL CONVECTION EXPECTED TODAY
ACROSS THE LOWER-MID MS VALLEY WITHIN THE MOIST ENVIRONMENT WITH
MINIMAL CONVECTIVE INHIBITION.

...CENTRAL PLAINS LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO EARLY TONIGHT...
IN RESPONSE TO THE TROUGH AMPLIFICATION OVER THE WRN STATES...LEE
CYCLOGENESIS ACROSS THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS WILL INDUCE SLY FLOW
ACROSS THE PLAINS AND DRAW BOUNDARY LAYER DEWPOINTS IN THE 60S NWD
FROM OK/KS TO NEB/SE SD BY THIS AFTERNOON. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE
SEWD FROM THE WRN DAKOTAS TO CENTRAL NEB/SE SD BY THIS
EVENING...PROVIDING A FOCUS FOR LOW-LEVEL ASCENT IN THE INCREASINGLY
MOIST/UNSTABLE ENVIRONMENT IMMEDIATELY SE OF THE FRONT. WEAK
LARGER-SCALE FORCING FOR ASCENT WITH THE LEAD SHORTWAVE
TROUGH...COMBINED WITH LOW-LEVEL ASCENT ALONG THE FRONT...SHOULD
SUPPORT THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT BY LATE AFTERNOON FROM CENTRAL NEB
TO SE SD/SW MN. DEEP-LAYER VERTICAL SHEAR WITHIN THE WARM SECTOR
WILL BE RELATIVELY WEAK...BUT MODERATE INSTABILITY /MLCAPE OF
1500-2000 J PER KG/ WILL SUPPORT A RISK FOR ISOLATED LARGE HAIL AND
STRONG/DAMAGING GUSTS WITH PRIMARILY MULTICELL CLUSTERS/LINE
SEGMENTS FROM LATE AFTERNOON INTO EARLY TONIGHT.

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