Sunday, October 27, 2013

DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook

ACUS01 KWNS 271925
SWODY1
SPC AC 271922

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0222 PM CDT SUN OCT 27 2013

VALID 272000Z - 281200Z

...NO TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

REMOVED GENERAL THUNDER FROM SRN TX AS THE CONVECTION ASSOCIATED
WITH THE UPPER TROUGH HAS MOVED OFFSHORE. ALTHOUGH WEAK INSTABILITY
REMAINS OVER DEEP S TX...WARM AIR ALOFT WITH WARM NOSE NEAR 700 MB
AS WELL AS LACK OF LOW LEVEL FORCING SHOULD PRECLUDE ANY
THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT. THE CHARACTER OF THE CU ON VISIBLE FURTHER
REINFORCES THE IDEA OF THE 700 MB WARM LAYER SUPPRESSING
DEVELOPMENT.

ELSEWHERE...WHILE A LIGHTNING STRIKE OR TWO COULD OCCUR OVER CNTRL
LA WHERE SOME HEATING IS TAKING PLACE AND SHALLOW SHOWERS
EXIST...ANY THREAT SHOULD BE SHORT LIVED.

..JEWELL.. 10/27/2013

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1125 AM CDT SUN OCT 27 2013/

...SYNOPSIS...
LARGE-SCALE PATTERN WILL UNDERGO SIGNIFICANT CHANGE OVER THE CONUS
THIS PERIOD...ALTHOUGH IMPACT ON TSTM POTENTIAL WILL BE MINIMAL
THROUGH EARLY MON.

SATELLITE SHOWS STRONG RIDGING OCCURRING ATTM OVER ERN
AK...DOWNSTREAM FROM A SERIES OF POTENT CYCLONES IN THE CNTRL
PACIFIC. THIS SUGGESTS THAT MODEL-ADVERTISED AMPLIFICATION OF SRN BC
SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL INDEED OCCUR BETWEEN NOW AND 12Z MON. AS THE
ASSOCIATED CLOSED LOW EVOLVES OVER ORE AND NRN CA/NV LATER
TODAY/TNGT...HEIGHTS WILL RISE DOWNSTREAM ACROSS THE SRN PLNS IN
WAKE OF WEAKENING IMPULSE NOW OVER THE ARKLATEX.

WDLY SCTD TSTMS MAY OCCUR OVER PARTS OF TX AND THE LWR MS VLY IN
ASSOCIATION WITH THE ARKLATEX TROUGH...AND ISOLD/SPORADIC STORMS MAY
OCCUR OVER PARTS OF THE INTERIOR NORTHWEST. OVERALL COVERAGE
SHOULD...HOWEVER...REMAIN FAIRLY LIMITED.

...SRN-SE TX TO LWR MS VLY THIS AFTN/EVE...
ARKLATEX UPR VORT EXPECTED TO CONTINUE SLOWLY E ACROSS SRN AR LATER
TODAY ...WHILE ASSOCIATED PRE-FRONTAL MCS FURTHER WEAKENS AND DRIFTS
ESE ACROSS THE NWRN GULF OF MEXICO. BAND OF DCVA/MID-LVL COLD
ADVECTION IMMEDIATELY AHEAD OF THE UPR VORT MAY SUPPORT SOME
INCREASE IN CONVECTION/POSSIBLE THUNDER LATER THIS AFTN OVER NRN
LA...SE AR...AND PERHAPS FAR WRN MS. WITH CAPE LIKELY TO REMAIN
WEAK...ANY TSTMS SHOULD REMAIN FAIRLY ISOLD/SHORT-LIVED.

FARTHER S...W-E OUTFLOW BOUNDARY ASSOCIATED WITH PRE-FRONTAL
MCS...AND THE COLD FRONT ITSELF...WILL CONTINUE TO DRIFT SLOWLY S
ACROSS SRN AND CNTRL TX THIS AFTN/EVE. THE BOUNDARIES WILL BE A
SOURCE OF MODEST LOW-LVL UPLIFT...AND AMPLE MOISTURE WILL BE PRESENT
FOR STORMS. BUT HEIGHT RISES AND STRENGTHENING EML CAP ASSOCIATED
WITH INCREASING WLY COMPONENT TO FLOW ALOFT WILL BE OFFSETTING
FACTORS NEGATING DEVELOPMENT...ESPECIALLY AFTER LATE AFTN.

...INTERIOR ORE AND VICINITY TODAY/TNGT...
A BROAD REGION OF STATIC INSTABILITY WILL DEVELOP OVER NRN AND WRN
PORTIONS OF THE GRT BASIN LATER TODAY THROUGH TNGT AHEAD OF STRONGLY
AMPLIFYING UPR TROUGH. WHILE ISOLD/SPORADIC INSTANCES OF LIGHTNING
MAY ACCOMPANY AREAS OF ENHANCED MESOSCALE ASCENT ASSOCIATED WITH THE
MAIN UPR VORT /ESPECIALLY OVER INTERIOR ORE TODAY AND FAR NRN CA-NW
NV TNGT/...SCANT MOISTURE SHOULD LIMIT STORM DURATION AND COVERAGE.

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