DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook

ACUS01 KWNS 011939
SWODY1
SPC AC 011936

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0236 PM CDT TUE OCT 01 2013

VALID 012000Z - 021200Z

...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

ONLY MINIMAL CHANGE TO THUNDERSTORM AREAS WITH NO SEVERE WEATHER
ANTICIPATED. SEE DISCUSSION BELOW FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION.

..GRAMS.. 10/01/2013

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1040 AM CDT TUE OCT 01 2013/

...SYNOPSIS...
A SERIES OF SHORTWAVE TROUGHS WILL PROGRESS EWD WITHIN THE PRIMARY
JET CORE NEAR THE CANADIAN BORDER. ISOLATED LIGHTING STRIKES WILL
BE POSSIBLE TODAY ACROSS WA WITH LOW-TOPPED CONVECTION IN THE ZONE
OF ASCENT PRECEDING ONE OF THE TROUGHS...WHERE LOW-MIDLEVEL LAPSE
RATES AOA 7 C/KM WILL CONTRIBUTE TO WEAK BUOYANCY. OTHERWISE...A
WEAK CLOSED LOW OVER THE NW GULF COAST...ALONG WITH DAYTIME HEATING
IN A TROPICAL MOISTURE PLUME WITH MINIMAL CONVECTIVE INHIBITION...
WILL MAINTAIN A RISK FOR THUNDERSTORMS FROM SE TX TO THE LOWER MS
VALLEY. A MARGINAL THUNDERSTORM RISK IS ALSO BEING MAINTAINED FOR
THE DAKOTAS FROM 09-12Z WEDNESDAY MORNING...AS LOW-LEVEL WAA
INCREASES IN THE PRESENCE OF WEAK MIDLEVEL MOISTENING/
DESTABILIZATION.

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