DAY2SVR: Nws Storm Prediction Center Norman Ok

ACUS02 KWNS 271732
SWODY2
SPC AC 271730

DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1230 PM CDT SUN OCT 27 2013

VALID 281200Z - 291200Z

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER MUCH OF CNTRL AND WRN
KS...NWRN OK...AND THE NERN TX PANHANDLE...

...SYNOPSIS...
A LARGE UPPER LOW WILL SINK SWD ACROSS THE GREAT BASIN WITH STRONG
MID/UPPER JET MAX EXTENDING FROM SRN CA INTO AZ/NM. PRECEDING THIS
SLOW MOVING TROUGH/LOW...NEUTRAL TO SLIGHTLY RISING HEIGHTS WILL
EXIST OVER THE CNTRL PLAINS BUT WITH INCREASING WINDS ALOFT.

BY LATE AFTERNOON...A SURFACE LOW IS FORECAST TO DEEPEN OVER THE WRN
OK/TX PANHANDLES INTO SWRN KS...WITH SLY FLOW ACROSS THE WARM SECTOR
S OF A STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDING EWD FROM WRN KS ALONG I-70.
BOUNDARY LAYER DEWPOINTS ARE EXPECTED TO RISE INTO THE UPPER 50S F
TO LOWER 60S F WITHIN THE MOIST AXIS FROM SWRN KS INTO TX...WITH A
DRYLINE EXTENDING S FROM THE LOW INTO WRN TX. HEATING NEAR THESE
BOUNDARIES WILL RESULT IN DESTABILIZATION AND SCATTERED SEVERE
STORMS MAINLY ACROSS KS.

...CNTRL PLAINS...
STRONG HEATING WILL OCCUR ALONG THE WRN FRINGE OF THE MOISTURE
RETURN FROM SWRN KS INTO WRN TX...ALLOWING DESTABILIZATION AND NEAR
ZERO CIN BY LATE AFTERNOON. STRONGLY VEERING AND INCREASING WINDS
WITH HEIGHT WILL PROVIDE A FAVORABLE SHEAR PROFILE FOR SUPERCELLS.
THE SUBTLE FORCING ALONG THE DRYLINE AND STATIONARY FRONT WILL
FURTHER FAVOR SUPERCELLULAR STORM MODE. HOWEVER...ACTIVITY MAY
REMAIN RELATIVELY ISOLATED.

ALTHOUGH COVERAGE OF SEVERE MAY NOT BE WIDESPREAD...A FEW CELLS
COULD PRODUCE LARGE HAIL PERHAPS UP TO 2.00 - 3.00 DIAMETER...ALONG
WITH THE THREAT OF A TORNADO OR TWO GIVEN A PERSISTENT LOW LEVEL JET
AND ENLARGED LOOPING HODOGRAPHS IN THE 00-03Z TIME FRAME. THE
STRONGEST STORMS WILL OCCUR PRIOR TO 03Z WHEN STEEPER LOW LEVEL
LAPSE RATES REMAIN...AND PROBABLY NOT TOO FAR E INTO THE COOLER
BOUNDARY LAYER AIR.

STRONG WARM ADVECTION SHOULD ALSO RESULT IN A LARGE AREA OF MAINLY
ELEVATED STORMS OVER ERN KS...FAR NERN OK AND SRN NEB DURING THE
EVENING. ALTHOUGH SHEAR WILL BE STRONG...LAPSE RATES WITH THIS
ACTIVITY SHOULD ONLY FAVOR ISOLATED...MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL.

..JEWELL.. 10/27/2013

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