ACUS48 KWNS 020800
SWOD48
SPC AC 020759
DAY 4-8 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0259 AM CDT WED OCT 02 2013
VALID 051200Z - 101200Z
...DISCUSSION...
MODEL DIFFERENCES ALREADY EXIST ON FRI/D3...AND CONTINUE TO GROW
INTO THE SAT/D4 AND BEYOND PERIOD. THE ECMWF CONTINUES TO BE MUCH
SLOWER WITH THIS SYSTEM...SUGGESTING COLD FRONTAL POSITION FROM
LACROSSE WI TO ST. LOUIS MO TO TEXARKANA LATE SATURDAY
AFTERNOON...WHILE THE OPERATIONAL GFS BRINGS THE FRONT INTO WRN
LOWER MI SWD INTO THE LOWER MS VALLEY.
REGARDLESS OF SCENARIO...INSTABILITY AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT WILL
NOT BE STRONG...AND DEEP LAYER SHEAR SHOULD HAVE A SIGNIFICANT
COMPONENT PARALLEL TO THE FRONT. THEREFORE...A LINEAR STORM MODE
WOULD APPEAR MOST PROBABLE...WITH A THREAT OF DAMAGING WINDS.
LOCATIONS SUCH AS MILWAUKEE...CHICAGO...AND ST. LOUIS COULD
EXPERIENCE STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS. HOWEVER...PREDICTABILITY IS TOO
LOW FOR ANY AREAS...AND INCREASES FURTHER BEYOND THE D4 PERIOD.
..JEWELL.. 10/02/2013
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