DAY48SVR: Nws Storm Prediction Center Norman Ok

ACUS48 KWNS 200855
SWOD48
SPC AC 200854

DAY 4-8 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0354 AM CDT SUN OCT 20 2013

VALID 231200Z - 281200Z

...DISCUSSION...
THE MEDIUM RANGE MODELS BEGIN THE DAY 4 TO 8 PERIOD WITH AN
UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE OH AND TN VALLEYS AND MOVE THIS FEATURE
TO THE ATLANTIC SEABOARD ON WEDNESDAY/DAY 4. THE UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH
REMAINS IN PLACE ACROSS THE ERN SEABOARD ON THURSDAY/DAY 5 AND
FRIDAY/DAY 6. THIS SHOULD HELP KEEP COLD AND DRY AIR IN PLACE ACROSS
MUCH OF THE CNTRL AND ERN U.S. LIMITING THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT
THROUGH MUCH OF UPCOMING WEEK. THE GREATEST CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS
COULD BE ACROSS THE SRN PLAINS ON SATURDAY/DAY 7 AS LOW-LEVEL
MOISTURE RETURNS NWD. CONFIDENCE IN THE MODEL SOLUTIONS FOR SATURDAY
IS LOW ATTM. EVEN SO...INSTABILITY AND SHEAR PROFILES WILL PROBABLY
BE MARGINAL FOR SEVERE STORMS NEXT WEEKEND.

..BROYLES.. 10/20/2013

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