DAY48SVR: Nws Storm Prediction Center Norman Ok

ACUS48 KWNS 230859
SWOD48
SPC AC 230858

DAY 4-8 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0358 AM CDT WED OCT 23 2013

VALID 261200Z - 311200Z

...DISCUSSION...
THE MEDIUM RANGE MODELS BEGIN THE DAY 4 TO 8 PERIOD WITH AN
UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE NCNTRL STATES AND MOVE THIS FEATURE EWD
ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES REGION ON SATURDAY/DAY 4. MOISTURE RETURN
SHOULD TAKE PLACE SATURDAY IN THE SRN PLAINS WHERE THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY WILL BE POSSIBLE DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THE
MODELS MOVE A SUBTLE SHORTWAVE TROUGH EWD ACROSS THE WRN GULF COAST
STATES ON SUNDAY/DAY 5 WHERE THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WILL BE POSSIBLE
DURING THE DAY. ON MONDAY/DAY 6...AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH IS FORECAST
TO DEVELOP IN THE WRN STATES. MOISTURE IS FORECAST TO RETURN NWD
INTO THE MID-MS VALLEY AND LOWER MO VALLEY WHERE THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY MAY OCCUR FROM MONDAY AFTERNOON INTO MONDAY NIGHT.
THUNDERSTORMS MAY AGAIN OCCUR IN THE MID MS VALLEY ON TUESDAY/DAY
7...BUT MODEL SOLUTIONS DIVERGE THIS FAR OUT IN TIME CONCERNING THE
POSITION OF THE WRN U.S. UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH.

AT THIS POINT...MONDAY AND TUESDAY APPEAR TO HAVE THE GREATEST
POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE STORMS BUT SUBSTANTIAL UNCERTAINTY EXISTS
CONCERNING THE AMOUNT OF INSTABILITY THAT WILL DEVELOP ACROSS THE
CNTRL U.S. ATTM...WILL NOT ADD AN ENHANCED SEVERE THREAT TO THE
OUTLOOK.

..BROYLES.. 10/23/2013

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