ACUS48 KWNS 270912
SWOD48
SPC AC 270911
DAY 4-8 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK CORR 1
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0411 AM CDT SUN OCT 27 2013
VALID 301200Z - 041200Z
CORRECTED FOR INCORRECT DAY OF THE WEEK
...DISCUSSION...
A MULTI-DAY SEVERE RISK REMAINS POSSIBLE ESPECIALLY ON DAYS 4-5
WEDNESDAY/THURSDAY AS A CONSIDERABLE UPPER TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED
COLD FRONT SPREAD GENERALLY EASTWARD OVER THE CENTRAL CONUS AND
INTERCEPT A SEASONALLY MOIST LOW-LEVEL AIRMASS. ABOVE-AVERAGE
GUIDANCE VARIABILITY STILL CONTINUES /FASTER GFS VERSUS SLOWER
ECMWF/...SUCH THAT SPATIAL/SCENARIO VARIABILITY EXISTS AND AREAL
ADJUSTMENTS OF THE RISK AREAS WILL UNDOUBTEDLY BE NEEDED.
ON DAY 4/WEDNESDAY...CURRENT THINKING IS THAT SEVERE TSTMS WILL BE
POSSIBLE WITHIN A GENERAL CORRIDOR FROM OK/NORTH TX TO THE LOWER MO
RIVER VALLEY/MIDDLE MS VALLEY...AND POTENTIALLY AS FAR NORTH AS
PARTS OF THE UPPER MIDWEST/UPPER MS VALLEY PENDING SUFFICIENT
DESTABILIZATION. AS THE UPPER TROUGH POTENTIALLY TAKES ON A MORE
NEGATIVE TILT INTO DAY 5/THURSDAY...A SEVERE RISK SHOULD SPREAD
EASTWARD TO THE ARKLATEX AND LOWER/MIDDLE MS VALLEY. SOME SEVERE
RISK ON DAY 5/THURSDAY COULD EVEN POTENTIALLY EXIST AS FAR NORTH AS
THE OH VALLEY AND THE GREAT LAKES REGION SHOULD SUFFICIENT /ALBEIT
MODEST/ DESTABILIZATION MATERIALIZE AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT.
..GUYER.. 10/27/2013
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