ACUS11 KWNS 112248
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 112248
MNZ000-NDZ000-120015-
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1964
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0548 PM CDT FRI OCT 11 2013
AREAS AFFECTED...E CENTRAL ND...W CENTRAL MN
CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 546...
VALID 112248Z - 120015Z
THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR TORNADO WATCH 546 CONTINUES.
SUMMARY...THE TORNADO THREAT WILL BE CONFINED TO A SMALL AREA OF ERN
ND AND W CENTRAL MN FOR THE NEXT HOUR OR TWO...AND THE THREAT IS
EXPECTED TO DIMINISH BY 00-01Z.
DISCUSSION...A BROKEN BAND OF LOW-TOPPED THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUES
ALONG THE ZONE OF ASCENT PRECEDING THE MIDLEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH
EJECTING NEWD OVER NE SD/SE ND...NEAR AND JUST E OF A SURFACE
TROUGH/DRYLINE. SOME CELLULAR ELEMENTS WITHIN THE BAND HAVE
DISPLAYED WEAK SUPERCELL CHARACTERISTICS IN THE PAST HOUR...IN AN
ENVIRONMENT CHARACTERIZED BY WEAK BUOYANCY AND STRONG LOW-LEVEL
SHEAR. THE WINDOW OF OPPORTUNITY FOR A BRIEF TORNADO WILL SOON
BEGIN TO CLOSE GIVEN THE UPCOMING LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING.
WIDESPREAD CLOUDS HAVE LIMITED SURFACE TEMPS/BUOYANCY IN THE ZONE OF
STRONGEST LOW-LEVEL SHEAR ACROSS ERN ND...WHILE THE SOMEWHAT WARMER
BOUNDARY LAYER FARTHER TO THE SOUTH IN MN COINCIDES WITH WEAKENING
LOW-LEVEL SHEAR WITH TIME. THUS...THE PHASING OF BUOYANCY/SHEAR
DOES NOT LOOK PARTICULARLY FAVORABLE FOR A SUSTAINED TORNADO THREAT
FROM HERE FORWARD...AND ANY EXPANSION/EXTENSION OF THE TORNADO WATCH
APPEARS UNNECESSARY.
..THOMPSON/BROYLES.. 10/11/2013
...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
ATTN...WFO...MPX...FGF...ABR...
LAT...LON 46289550 45389540 44979544 44739574 44799600 45679623
46199659 46459683 47099795 47559813 47659788 47589691
47149606 46289550
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