MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 1965

ACUS11 KWNS 120447
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 120447
MOZ000-ARZ000-OKZ000-KSZ000-120645-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1965
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1147 PM CDT FRI OCT 11 2013

AREAS AFFECTED...E/NE OK...SE KS...SW MO

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY

VALID 120447Z - 120645Z

PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...20 PERCENT

SUMMARY...ELEVATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL POSE A RISK FOR MARGINALLY
SEVERE HAIL OVERNIGHT...BUT A WATCH DOES NOT APPEAR NECESSARY.

DISCUSSION...THUNDERSTORMS HAVE BEEN ONGOING FOR THE PAST 1-2 HOURS
ACROSS SE KS AND W CENTRAL MO...WITH THE STRONGER STORMS IN SE KS IN
CLOSER PROXIMITY TO THE LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE/INSTABILITY FEED FROM ERN
OK. THE STORMS APPEAR TO BE SUPPORTED BY LOW-LEVEL WAA ALONG THE
AXIS OF A 35 KT LLJ...AND RADAR/IR SATELLITE IMAGERY SUGGEST NEW
STORM DEVELOPMENT IS OCCURRING WITHIN THE MOIST SECTOR ACROSS ERN
OK. LARGER-SCALE SUPPORT FOR THIS THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT SHOULD
PEAK IN THE 06-09Z TIME FRAME AS A MIDLEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH BRUSHES
JUST NW OF THE WARM SECTOR...AND BEFORE THE LLJ VEERS/WEAKENS.
MIDLEVEL LAPSE RATES OF 6.5-7 C/KM AND MID-UPPER 60S DEWPOINTS NEAR
THE SURFACE WILL MAINTAIN WEAK-MODERATE BUOYANCY IN THE WARM SECTOR
/MUCAPE OF 1000-2000 J PER KG/...AND DEEP-LAYER VERTICAL SHEAR WILL
BE SUFFICIENT FOR SOME STORM-SCALE ORGANIZATION. THERE WILL BE A
RISK FOR HAIL APPROACHING SEVERE CRITERIA FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL
HOURS...BUT THE OVERALL RISK SHOULD REMAIN TOO MARGINAL TO WARRANT A
WATCH.

..THOMPSON/BROYLES.. 10/12/2013

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...SGF...EAX...TSA...TOP...ICT...OUN...

LAT...LON 34419562 34489626 34979667 35999658 36919621 37829552
38359472 38369416 37989384 37469392 36479445 34629501
34419562

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