MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 1967

ACUS11 KWNS 122126
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 122125
TXZ000-122300-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1967
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0425 PM CDT SAT OCT 12 2013

AREAS AFFECTED...A SMALL PART OF E CENTRAL/SE TX

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY

VALID 122125Z - 122300Z

PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...5 PERCENT

SUMMARY...AN ISOLATED DAMAGING WIND RISK WILL PERSIST THROUGH ABOUT
23Z WITH ONGOING CLUSTERS AND ADDITIONAL OUTFLOW BOUNDARY
MERGERS...BUT THE THREAT APPEARS TO BE TOO MARGINAL AND CONFINED IN
TIME/SPACE TO WARRANT A WATCH.

DISCUSSION...A THUNDERSTORM CLUSTER N OF CLL HAS DEVELOPED SOME
BOWING CHARACTERISTICS AS IT MOVES ESEWD AT 35 KT. THE CLUSTER IS
NOW MOVING ALONG A WEAK OUTFLOW BOUNDARY FROM EARLIER STORMS TO THE
E...WHILE A SECOND OUTFLOW IS MOVING NWD TO THE NW-N OF HOUSTON. A
CORRIDOR OF MLCAPE NEAR 2500 J/KG PERSISTS BETWEEN THE TWO
BOUNDARIES...AND EFFECTIVE BULK SHEAR NEAR 35 KT WILL REMAIN
SUFFICIENT TO MAINTAIN SOME STORM-SCALE ORGANIZATION/PERSISTENCE.
UNTIL THE BOUNDARY MERGERS OCCUR AND BUOYANCY IS OVERTURNED...THERE
WILL BE A RISK FOR AT LEAST ISOLATED DAMAGING WINDS IN THE COLLEGE
STATION TO HUNTSVILLE THROUGH ABOUT 23Z.

..THOMPSON.. 10/12/2013

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...LCH...SHV...HGX...FWD...

LAT...LON 31059635 31279601 31429590 31559565 31539536 31369496
31329483 31089463 30589462 30349485 30409526 30549581
30629624 30709642 30759652 30939648 31059635

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