MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 1970

ACUS11 KWNS 142148
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 142148
KSZ000-NEZ000-OKZ000-142245-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1970
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0448 PM CDT MON OCT 14 2013

AREAS AFFECTED...S-CNTRL NEB...CNTRL KS...FAR NWRN OK

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 547...

VALID 142148Z - 142245Z

THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 547
CONTINUES.

SUMMARY...SVR THREAT CONTINUES TO BE CONFINED TO NARROW W-E CORRIDOR
WITHIN WW 547. DECREASING INSTABILITY WITH EWD PROGRESSION WILL
LIKELY RESULT IN SUBSTANTIAL WEAKENING OF CONVECTION WITHIN THE NEXT
1-2 HRS.

DISCUSSION...RADAR IMAGERY SHOWS A LINE OF STRONG-SVR TSTMS MOVING
INTO S-CNTRL NEB AND N-CNTRL KS...IMMEDIATELY PRECEDING A COLD FRONT
PUSHING SEWD. A SEPARATE SMALL LINE SEGMENT WAS LOCATED OVER PAWNEE
AND RUSH COUNTIES...EXHIBITING OCCASIONAL SUPERCELL CHARACTERISTICS.
THIS CONVECTION IS CURRENTLY LOCATED WITHIN A NARROW INSTABILITY
CORRIDOR...WITH MLCAPE VALUES ESTIMATED NEAR 500-1000 J/KG.
WIDESPREAD CLOUD COVER E OF THIS CORRIDOR HAS RESULTED IN
TEMPERATURES ONLY REACHING THE LOWER-MID 60S F...YIELDING ANEMIC
INSTABILITY WITH EWD EXTENT. AS A RESULT...A WEAKENING TREND IN
INTENSITY WILL LIKELY CONTINUE OVER THE NEXT COUPLE HRS.

FARTHER S...ONE LONE STRONG STORM WAS MOVING INTO NWRN OK. DESPITE
STRONG DEEP-LAYER SHEAR...THE STORM WILL SOON ENCOUNTER A SIMILARLY
LESS UNSTABLE ENVIRONMENT AS OVER PARTS OF CNTRL KS...AND WILL
LIKELY STRUGGLE TO INTENSIFY ANY FURTHER.

..ROGERS.. 10/14/2013

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...ICT...OUN...GID...DDC...AMA...

LAT...LON 39839923 40489890 40569848 40389811 39829807 38049825
36999853 36469938 36419987 36589997 37990010 39499931
39839923

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