DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook

ACUS01 KWNS 110544
SWODY1
SPC AC 110542

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1142 PM CST SUN NOV 10 2013

VALID 111200Z - 121200Z

...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

...SYNOPSIS...
MODELS REMAIN CONSISTENT WITH THE EXPECTED AMPLIFICATION OF THE
UPPER FLOW PATTERN ACROSS MUCH OF NORTH AMERICA THROUGH THE DAY 1
PERIOD. HEIGHTS ARE FORECAST TO RISE AS A RIDGE BUILDS NWD ACROSS
THE WRN STATES AND ALONG AND JUST EAST OF THE CANADIAN ROCKIES.
MEANWHILE...A SHORTWAVE TROUGH...CURRENTLY MOVING THROUGH NRN
ONTARIO PER WATER VAPOR IMAGERY...WILL UNDERGO DEEPENING AS IT
TRACKS EWD INTO QUEBEC. AS THE RIDGE BUILDS UPSTREAM...AN ATTENDANT
LARGE SCALE TROUGH WILL EVOLVE SWD FROM THE DEEPENING LOW THROUGH
THE ERN CONUS. AT THE SURFACE...A COLD FRONT ATTENDANT TO THE
ONTARIO SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO TRAIL SWWD THROUGH NRN LOWER
MI TO SRN IA AND ALONG THE NEB/KS BORDER TO NERN CO AT 12Z TODAY.
THIS FRONT IS EXPECTED TO PLOW E AND SOUTH AS AN EXPANSIVE AREA OF
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS THROUGH THE PLAINS AND INTO THE TN/OH VALLEYS
TO GREAT LAKES REGION. BY 12Z TUESDAY...THE COLD FRONT SHOULD
EXTEND FROM OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST SWWD THROUGH SERN VA TO NRN
GA...THE LOWER MS VALLEY TO CENTRAL TX.

...SRN PLAINS...
SLY LOW LEVEL FLOW ACROSS THIS REGION DURING THE LAST FEW DAYS HAS
RESULTED IN A RELATIVELY NARROW CORRIDOR OF MOISTURE EXTENDING FROM
WRN/CENTRAL TX NWD THROUGH WRN OK/ERN TX PANHANDLE INTO SOUTH
CENTRAL KS. SURFACE DEW POINTS IN THIS CORRIDOR ARE GENERALLY IN
THE LOWER-MID 50S F. A PLUME OF MIDLEVEL LAPSE RATES /7-7.5 C PER
KM/ EXTENDING EWD ACROSS THE CENTRAL/SRN PLAINS COMBINED WITH
ADEQUATE SURFACE HEATING WITHIN THE MOIST...PRE-FRONTAL BOUNDARY
LAYER SHOULD RESULT IN AT LEAST WEAK DESTABILIZATION. ALTHOUGH
MID/UPPER FORCING FOR LARGE-SCALE ASCENT IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN
NEGLIGIBLE...A ZONE OF ENHANCED LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE/FRONTAL LIFT
MAY BE SUFFICIENT FOR ISOLATED STORM DEVELOPMENT IN NRN OK THIS
AFTERNOON...WITH A TENDENCY FOR ACTIVITY TO BE UNDERCUT BY THE FRONT
WHILE DEVELOPING SSWWD.

...UPPER GREAT LAKES...
STRONG LOWER/MID LEVEL COLD ADVECTION ACROSS THE RELATIVELY WARM
LAKE WATERS SUGGESTS THERMODYNAMIC PROFILES WITH SUFFICIENT
CAPE...THROUGH COLD ENOUGH LAYERS...TO SUPPORT LOW-TOPPED CONVECTION
CAPABLE OF PRODUCING LIGHTNING. THIS POTENTIAL WOULD BE GREATEST
ACROSS PARTS OF UPPER MI AND NRN/WRN LOWER MI...BUT LATEST GUIDANCE
DOES NOT APPEAR SUFFICIENT TO MAINTAIN A GENERAL TSTM AREA AT THIS
TIME.

..PETERS/LEITMAN.. 11/11/2013

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