DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook

ACUS01 KWNS 141249
SWODY1
SPC AC 141246

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0646 AM CST THU NOV 14 2013

VALID 141300Z - 151200Z

...NO TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

...SYNOPSIS...
IN MID-UPPER LEVELS...HEIGHTS ARE FCST TO FALL ACROSS MUCH OF
CENTRAL/WRN CONUS TODAY. THIS WILL OCCUR AS SERIES OF SHORTWAVE
TROUGHS CONTRIBUTES TO MEAN TROUGHING AND CYCLONIC FLOW DEVELOPMENT
FROM PAC COAST TO MS VALLEY BY END OF PERIOD. TWO MOST NOTABLE
PERTURBATIONS AMONG THEM ARE...
1. CURRENTLY EXTENDING FROM NERN CO ACROSS 4-CORNERS AREA TO NERN
AZ--FCST TO MOVE SEWD ACROSS SERN NM AND TX SOUTH-PLAINS REGION BY
00Z THEN PIVOT EWD TO ERN OK AND N-CENTRAL TX BY 12Z.
2. NOW EVIDENT IN MOISTURE CHANNEL IMAGERY OVER VANCOUVER ISLAND AND
ADJOINING PAC WATERS...AND EXPECTED TO REACH SRN ID...NV AND CENTRAL
CA BY END OF PERIOD.

WHILE POTENTIAL IN EACH APPEARS TOO CONDITIONAL...ISOLATED...AND
BRIEF FOR GEN TSTM AREAS...LTG CANNOT BE RULED OUT DEFINITIVELY IN
EITHER OF TWO REGIMES RELATED TO LEADING PERTURBATION.

...SRN ROCKIES TO W TX THIS AFTN...
DCVA AND RELATED COOLING ALOFT PRECEDING MID-UPPER TROUGH WILL
CONTRIBUTE TO FAVORABLY STEEP LAPSE RATES SHIFTING/SPREADING SEWD
OVER CORRIDOR FROM CENTRAL/ERN NM ACROSS TRANS-PECOS REGION INTO NRN
CHIHUAHUA...AND PERHAPS SRN HIGH PLAINS AFTER DARK. MOST AGGRESSIVE
DESTABILIZATION PROGS INDICATE SUFFICIENTLY JUXTAPOSED COMBINATION
OF STEEP MIDLEVEL LAPSE RATES AND SFC DIABATIC HEATING TO YIELD
MINUSCULE BUOYANCY WITH NARROW CAPE PROFILES -- I.E. LI NO MORE
NEGATIVE THAN -2 FOR MUCAPE AROUND 100 J/KG. LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE
WILL REMAIN QUITE SCANT...EXCEPT FOR RESIDUAL POCKETS IN HIGHER
TERRAIN OF NRN MEX...AND IS MAIN LIMITING FACTOR FOR THUNDER N OF
MEX BORDER.

...CENTRAL/ERN OK OVERNIGHT...
STG LOW-LEVEL WAA SHOULD BE UNDERWAY FROM LATE AFTN ONWARD ACROSS
SRN PLAINS...AMIDST FAVORABLE MASS RESPONSE TO APCHG MID-UPPER
PERTURBATION. TIME SERIES OF FCST SOUNDINGS INDICATES SUFFICIENT
COOLING AND MOISTENING IN 650-750 MB LAYER TO YIELD NEAR-SATURATED
CONDITIONS...NEARLY UNCAPPED...BELOW STEEPENING MIDLEVEL LAPSE
RATES. RESULTING AREA OF UP TO 100 J/KG ELEVATED MUCAPE...WITH -1
TO -2 LI...SHOULD SHIFT ENEWD ACROSS THIS REGION AND MAY FOSTER
SHALLOW MIDLEVEL CONVECTION. IN SOME CASES...BUOYANCY MAY REACH
MRGLLY/BRIEFLY INTO FAVORABLE ICING LAYERS ALOFT...BUT APPEARS TOO
SMALL AND DEPENDENT ON OPTIMAL REALIZATION OF NEAR-700-MB THETAE TO
SUPPORT SUSTAINED THUNDER THREAT.

..EDWARDS/MOSIER.. 11/14/2013

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