DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook

ACUS01 KWNS 152000
SWODY1
SPC AC 151957

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0157 PM CST FRI NOV 15 2013

VALID 152000Z - 161200Z

...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

...20Z UPDATE...
NO CHANGES TO EXISTING TSTM OUTLOOK AREAS. ELSEWHERE...SHOWERS AND A
FEW TSTMS MAY FORM LATE TONIGHT /MAINLY 09Z-12Z/ ACROSS PARTS OF THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS/LOWER MO VALLEY...BUT THE OVERALL TSTM POTENTIAL
APPEARS LIMITED GIVEN CAPPING/INITIALLY LIMITED MOISTURE RETURN.

..GUYER.. 11/15/2013

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1014 AM CST FRI NOV 15 2013/

...SYNOPSIS...

THE LARGE-SCALE PATTERN OVER THE CONUS WILL REMAIN CHARACTERIZED AS
BROADLY CYCLONIC AND MULTI STREAM WITH A NUMBER OF TRANSITORY
PERTURBATIONS EMBEDDED WITHIN THIS FLOW REGIME. ONE IMPULSE OVER
THE LOWER MS VALLEY WILL WEAKEN WHILE APPROACHING THE MID-ATLANTIC
COAST LATE TONIGHT. FARTHER UPSTREAM...A SHORT-WAVE TROUGH OVER THE
GREAT BASIN WILL PROGRESS SEWD THROUGH THE FOUR CORNERS REGION IN
ADVANCE OF AN AMPLIFYING SHORT-WAVE TROUGH AND ATTENDANT STRONG MID
AND UPPER-LEVEL JET STREAKS ADVANCING EQUATORWARD INTO THE PACIFIC
NW AND NRN INTER-MOUNTAIN REGION.

IN THE LOW LEVELS...A LARGE ANTICYCLONE PRESENT E OF THE MS VALLEY
WILL DEVELOP EWD WHILE A LEE CYCLONE DEEPENS OVER THE CNTRL HIGH
PLAINS.

...FOUR CORNERS THIS AFTERNOON/TONIGHT...

DESPITE THE PRESENCE OF A RELATIVELY DRY AIR MASS...COOLING MIDLEVEL
TEMPERATURES AND DAYTIME HEATING WILL SUPPORT STEEPENING LAPSE RATES
AND THE DEVELOPMENT OF A WEAKLY UNSTABLE ENVIRONMENT. LOW-LEVEL
UPLIFT ALONG FAVORED TERRAIN COUPLED WITH DCVA/HEIGHT FALLS
ASSOCIATED WITH THE APPROACHING SHORT-WAVE TROUGH WILL FOSTER
ISOLATED TSTMS LATER TODAY. A STRENGTHENING TROPOSPHERIC WIND FIELD
MAY PROMOTE LOCALLY STRONG WIND GUSTS...THOUGH NO SEVERE WEATHER IS
ANTICIPATED.

...NC OUTER BANKS TONIGHT...

FRONTOGENETIC FORCING ASSOCIATED WITH A COASTAL BOUNDARY WILL BE
AUGMENTED BY DCVA ATTENDANT TO A SRN STREAM SHORT-WAVE TROUGH
--CURRENTLY OVER THE LOWER MS VALLEY-- TO PROMOTE AN INCREASE IN
SHOWERS AND A FEW TSTMS.

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