DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook

ACUS01 KWNS 091951
SWODY1
SPC AC 091949

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0149 PM CST SAT NOV 09 2013

VALID 092000Z - 101200Z

...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

NO CHANGES ARE MADE TO THE OUTLOOK FOR THIS ISSUANCE.

..BROYLES.. 11/09/2013

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1111 AM CST SAT NOV 09 2013/

...1630Z OUTLOOK ISSUANCE DELAYED OWING TO TECHNICAL PROBLEMS...

...SOUTH FLORIDA EXCLUDING THE FLORIDA KEYS...
DURING THE PAST 24 HOURS...SFC OBS INDICATE THAT WINDS HAVE
DECIDEDLY VEERED FROM NNELY TO ENELY/ELY...IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE
EWD TRANSLATION OF A SFC ANTICYCLONE WELL TO THE N. AS THE SFC
HIGH -- CURRENTLY OVER THE CNTRL/SRN APPALACHIANS AND ADJACENT
PIEDMONT -- SHIFTS EWD AND OFF THE ATLANTIC COAST AND SFC PRESSURES
FALL ALONG A WWD-TRAILING RIDGE INTO THE SERN STATES PRECEDING A
LOW-AMPLITUDE IMPULSE...MODERATE TO FRESH ENELY/S AND ELY/S WILL BE
MAINTAINED OVER SOUTH FLORIDA. THIS WILL SUPPORT THE INFLUX OF A
COMPARATIVELY MORE MARITIME ENVIRONMENT...WITH GPS DATA AND 12Z
MIAMI/KEY WEST RAOB/S INDICATING A RIBBON OF 1.8-2.0-INCH PW VALUES
NEAR AND S OF A STALLED...E/W-ORIENTED FRONTAL BOUNDARY THAT CROSSES
THE LAKE OKEECHOBEE REGION.

WHILE THE AFOREMENTIONED SOUNDINGS INDICATE FAIRLY POOR LAPSE RATES
THROUGH THE LOWER/MIDDLE TROPOSPHERE...VIS IMAGERY INDICATES AREAS
OF INSOLATION AMIDST RICH BOUNDARY-LAYER MOISTURE /E.G. SFC
DEWPOINTS IN THE LOWER 70S/. SBCAPE WILL LIKELY INCREASE TO AROUND
1000-1500 J/KG BY MID AFTERNOON...FOSTERING AN INCREASE IN THE DEPTH
OF CONVECTION THAT WILL BE BOLSTERED BY ASCENT INVOF THE FRONT AND
AUGMENTED AROUND PERIPHERIES OF MULTI-LAYERED CLOUD REGIONS ALONG
WITH WEAK...INTERIOR-TO-WEST-COAST-FOCUSED SEA BREEZE CIRCULATIONS.
MODIFIED SOUNDINGS SUGGEST THAT CONVECTIVE PLUMES COULD EXTEND
SUFFICIENTLY DEEP INTO ICING LAYERS ALOFT FOR A FEW
AFTERNOON/EARLY-EVENING THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE EAST COAST
METROPOLITAN AREAS FROM MIAMI AND HOMESTEAD TO FORT LAUDERDALE AND
BOCA RATON...AND WWD ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA TO THE GULF WATERS OFF THE
SW COAST NEAR AND S OF NAPLES. ACCORDINGLY...A GENERAL-THUNDERSTORM
AREA HAS BEEN INTRODUCED.

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