Thursday, November 21, 2013

DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook

ACUS01 KWNS 220104
SWODY1
SPC AC 220101

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0701 PM CST THU NOV 21 2013

VALID 220100Z - 221200Z

...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

...SERN OK INTO NRN/CNTRL TX TONIGHT...
POLAR FRONT LOCATED AT 01Z FROM THE PERMIAN BASIN ENEWD INTO FAR
SERN OK WILL PLUNGE SWD ACROSS CNTRL TX TONIGHT. EVENING SURFACE
OBSERVATIONS AND THE 00Z RAOB FROM FWD SHOW A MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER
/MEAN MIXING RATIO NEAR 14 G PER KG/ LOCATED AHEAD OF THE FRONT WILL
AID IN WEAK TO MODERATE BUOYANCY...AND WHEN COMBINED WITH VERTICALLY
VEERING WIND PROFILES...WILL SUPPORT TRANSIENT SUPERCELL STRUCTURES.
HOWEVER...PROGRESSIVE/UNDERCUTTING NATURE OF THE FRONT AND NOCTURNAL
COOLING AT THE SURFACE WILL LIMIT STORM STRENGTH/PERSISTENCE AS WELL
AS THE POTENTIAL FOR ADDITIONAL SURFACE BASED THUNDERSTORM
DEVELOPMENT. THUS...MARGINAL SEVERE HAIL THREAT WILL EXIST WITH
ELEVATED STORMS OCCURRING ALONG/BEHIND THE FRONT...WHILE LOW-END
DAMAGING WIND POTENTIAL WILL BE CONFINED TO STORMS OCCURRING ALONG
LEADING EDGE OF THE FRONT.

..GARNER.. 11/22/2013

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