Saturday, November 23, 2013

DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook

ACUS01 KWNS 230553
SWODY1
SPC AC 230550

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1150 PM CST FRI NOV 22 2013

VALID 231200Z - 241200Z

...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

...DISCUSSION...
TWO SEPARATE LARGE-SCALE FEATURES -- A TROUGH MOVING EWD ACROSS SERN
CANADA/NERN CONUS AND A CLOSED LOW GRADUALLY SHIFTING EWD ACROSS THE
DESERT SW -- WILL DOMINANT THE UPPER-LEVEL PATTERN THROUGH THE
PERIOD.

OVER THE DESERT SW...COLD AIR AT MID-LEVELS NEAR THE UPPER LOW MAY
SUPPORT ISOLATED STORMS WITHIN A MEAGERLY BUOYANT AIR MASS THIS
AFTERNOON. LOWER-LEVEL WAA WILL STRENGTHEN DOWNSTREAM OF THE UPPER
LOW ACROSS WRN TX SAT NIGHT...YIELDING A BROAD SWATH OF
PRECIPITATION. HIGHLY ELEVATED PARCELS ROOTED NEAR 700 MB MAY
POSSESS THIN BUOYANCY AND SUFFICIENT CHARGE SEPARATION FOR ISOLATED
EMBEDDED TSTMS. FARTHER E...AS THE LEADING EDGE OF THE POLAR AIR
MASS ADVANCES ACROSS FL...ISOLATED STORMS SHOULD DEVELOP THIS
AFTERNOON OVER THE SRN PORTION OF THE PENINSULA. FINALLY...A FEW
SPORADIC LIGHTNING STRIKES MAY OCCUR WITHIN LAKE EFFECT SNOW BANDS
DOWNSTREAM OF THE GREAT LAKES AMIDST A VERY COLD AIR MASS...BUT
OVERALL PROBABILITIES DO NOT APPEAR TO WARRANT GENERAL TSTM AREAS.

..GRAMS.. 11/23/2013

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