Thursday, November 14, 2013

DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook

ACUS01 KWNS 150051
SWODY1
SPC AC 150045

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0645 PM CST THU NOV 14 2013

VALID 150100Z - 151200Z

...NO TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

...SRN PLAINS...
CONVECTION THAT DEVELOPED OVER NM WITHIN A RELATIVE COLD POCKET
ALOFT...ASSOCIATED WITH A MID/UPPER VORT MAX...HAS WEAKENED WITH THE
LOSS OF DIURNAL HEATING. FARTHER E...SCATTERED SHOWER DEVELOPMENT
HAS OCCURRED WITHIN A WEAK LOW-LEVEL WAA REGIME ACROSS OK AND N TX.
00Z OUN SOUNDING SAMPLED MIDLEVEL LAPSE RATES AROUND 6 C/KM...AND AS
LOW-LEVELS CONTINUE TO MOISTEN...NARROW CAPE PROFILES /WITH LESS
THAN 100 J/KG/ MAY EVOLVE. WHILE A FEW LIGHTNING STRIKES WILL BE
POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT ACROSS PARTS OF CENTRAL AND ERN OK...COVERAGE IS
EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW 10 PERCENT...PRECLUDING INCLUSION IN A
GENERAL THUNDER AREA.

..ROGERS.. 11/15/2013

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