Friday, November 29, 2013

DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook

ACUS01 KWNS 291254
SWODY1
SPC AC 291250

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0650 AM CST FRI NOV 29 2013

VALID 291300Z - 301200Z

...NO TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

...SYNOPSIS...
QUASI-ZONAL FLOW ALOFT IS FCST ACROSS MOST OF CONUS TODAY. THIS
INCLUDES REGIME OF CONFLUENCE OVER SRN/CENTRAL ROCKIES AND ADJACENT
HIGH PLAINS DOWNSTREAM FROM MID-UPPER CYCLONE OFF CA COAST. STG
RIDGING...FROM NEW ENGLAND SWWD ACROSS WRN GULF COAST INTO NRN
MEX...DOMINATES LOW-LEVEL PATTERN IN WAKE OF DEEP CONTINENTAL/POLAR
INTRUSION THAT NOW EXTENDS INTO NWRN CARIBBEAN. THIS PRECLUDES
SUPPORTIVE MOISTURE RETURN UNDER STRONG FLOW ALOFT...FOR THIS PERIOD
AND AT LEAST A FEW DAYS BEYOND PER DAY 4-8 OUTLOOK. AS SUCH...TSTM
POTENTIAL TODAY IS ESSENTIALLY NIL. SOME CONVECTION MAY CONTINUE TO
OCCUR OVER AND MOSTLY OFFSHORE SRN CA INVOF COLD-CORE REGION OF
MID-UPPER LOW...WHERE STEEP MIDLEVEL LAPSE RATES YIELD WEAK CAPE.
HOWEVER...FCST SOUNDINGS SUGGEST BUOYANCY DEPTH SUPPORTING LTG
POTENTIAL...IF ANY...WILL BE AWAY FROM LAND.

..EDWARDS.. 11/29/2013

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