Monday, November 4, 2013

DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook

ACUS01 KWNS 050350
SWODY1
SPC AC 050348

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0948 PM CST MON NOV 04 2013

VALID 051200Z - 061200Z

...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

...SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL DEVELOP SLOWLY SEWD ACROSS THE CNTRL PLAINS DURING
THE DAY...CONTINUING INTO THE SRN PLAINS OVERNIGHT BENEATH SWLY FLOW
ALOFT. AHEAD OF THE FRONT...WIDESPREAD CLOUDS AND RAIN...WITH A FEW
WEAK EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS...WILL BE ONGOING FOR MUCH OF THE PERIOD
ACROSS OK...KS...AND NEB IN A WARM ADVECTION REGIME. ELSEWHERE
ACROSS THE CONUS...CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN STABLE.

...CNTRL KS...WRN OK...TX PANHANDLE...
SOME HEATING IS EXPECTED AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT MAINLY ACROSS NWRN
TX INTO THE TX PANHANDLE...WHICH WILL HELP TO CREATE MARGINAL
INSTABILITY ON THE ORDER OF 500-750 J/KG MUCAPE. ALTHOUGH WIND
PROFILES WILL BE STRONG ALOFT...A NOTED VEER-BACK SIGNAL IN THE
700-500 MB LAYER AS WELL AS LINEAR FORCING ALONG THE COLD FRONT ALL
SUGGEST SUB-MARGINAL SUPERCELL POTENTIAL AND THE LIKELIHOOD OF
LINEAR STORM MODE. COOL TEMPERATURES ALOFT COULD YIELD SOME SMALL
HAIL...AND WHILE LOCALLY STRONG WIND GUSTS CAN NEVER BE RULED
OUT...SEVERE WEATHER IS NOT ANTICIPATED.

..JEWELL.. 11/05/2013

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