DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook

ACUS01 KWNS 051231
SWODY1
SPC AC 051229

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0629 AM CST TUE NOV 05 2013

VALID 051300Z - 061200Z

...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

...SYNOPSIS...

A POSITIVELY TILTED TROUGH FROM CNTRL CANADA TO THE SWRN DESERTS
WILL PROGRESS EWD INTO THE CNTRL CONUS IN RESPONSE TO THE
ADVANCEMENT OF AN UPSTREAM RIDGE FROM THE ERN PACIFIC ONTO THE WEST
COAST. THE MOST INTENSE HEIGHT FALLS/FORCING FOR ASCENT WITH THIS
TROUGH WILL SPREAD FROM THE CNTRL PLAINS TO UPPER MIDWEST...LIKELY
IN ASSOCIATION WITH AN EMBEDDED VORTICITY MAXIMUM NOW OVER WY.
OTHER SMALL-SCALE VORTICITY MAXIMA WILL BE EMITTED FROM THE PARENT
TROUGH THROUGH THE CNTRL/SRN PLAINS TOWARD THE MID MS VALLEY WITHIN
STRONG SWLY MID AND UPPER-LEVEL FLOW.

IN THE LOW LEVELS...12Z MESOANALYSIS SHOWS THE PRIMARY SURFACE
BAROCLINIC ZONE STRETCHING FROM THE UPPER GREAT LAKES SWWD THROUGH
THE LOWER MO VALLEY TO SRN HIGH PLAINS. IN RESPONSE TO THE EWD
PROGRESSION OF THE UPPER TROUGH...LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE INDICATES
THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SURFACE WAVE WHICH WILL TRACK FROM THE SRN HIGH
PLAINS TO UPPER GREAT LAKES/UPPER MIDWEST BY 06/12Z. THE PORTION OF
SURFACE FRONT AHEAD OF THE MIGRATORY LOW WILL LIKELY LIFT
NWD...WHILE THE TRAILING SEGMENT ACCELERATES SEWD INTO THE SRN
PLAINS.

...CNTRL PLAINS/LOWER MO VALLEY TO S TX/TX COAST...

A DYNAMICALLY INDUCED SLY/SWLY LLJ WILL MAINTAIN THE POLEWARD FLUX
OF AN INCREASINGLY MOIST AIR MASS WITHIN THE PRE-FRONTAL WARM
SECTOR. THIS MOISTURE TRANSPORT AND ENHANCEMENT OF WAA AND
ISENTROPIC ASCENT ALONG THE LLJ AXIS --IN ADDITION TO THE POSSIBLE
INFLUENCE OF A WEAK PERTURBATION PROGRESSING THROUGH THE CNTRL/SRN
HIGH PLAINS-- APPEAR TO BE THE PRIMARY PROCESSES SUPPORTING ONGOING
STORMS FROM CNTRL KS TO ERN NM. EXPECT THESE SAME FORCING
MECHANISMS TO PROMOTE ADDITIONAL STORM DEVELOPMENT TODAY WITHIN THE
WARM CONVEYOR BELT AIR STREAM. OTHER STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE ALONG
OR IN THE IMMEDIATE WAKE OF THE COLD FRONT THIS AFTERNOON INTO
TONIGHT AS IT SURGES SEWD INTO AN INCREASINGLY MOIST ENVIRONMENT
OVER THE SRN PLAINS.

12Z UPPER-AIR DATA AND MODEL-DERIVED FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE
THAT WIDESPREAD CLOUDS AND WEAK MIDLEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL INHIBIT
AIR MASS DESTABILIZATION THROUGH THE PEAK OF THE DIURNAL HEATING
CYCLE WITH MUCAPE REMAINING GENERALLY LESS THAN 1000 J/KG.
THUS...DESPITE THE PRESENCE OF A VERTICALLY VEERING WIND PROFILE
WITH MODESTLY STRONG LOW-LEVEL AND DEEP-LAYER SHEAR...THE WEAK
INSTABILITY AND ANAFRONTAL CHARACTER OF THE SEWD-PROGRESSING COLD
FRONT ARE EXPECTED TO LIMIT SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL.

..MEAD/BOTHWELL.. 11/05/2013

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