ACUS01 KWNS 191605
SWODY1
SPC AC 191603
DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1003 AM CST TUE NOV 19 2013
VALID 191630Z - 201200Z
...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...
...SYNOPSIS...
A PROGRESSIVE...SPLIT-FLOW REGIME WILL PREVAIL OVER THE LOWER 48
WITH A STRONG TROUGH OVER ERN CANADA AND THE NERN U.S. SHIFTING
NEWD. UPSTREAM FROM THIS TROUGH...MIDLEVEL HEIGHTS WILL LOWER FROM
THE CANADIAN PRAIRIE PROVINCES TO SWRN STATES AS AN EWD-MOVING
POLAR-BRANCH SHORT-WAVE TROUGH OVER WRN CANADA PHASES WITH WEAKER
PERTURBATIONS ADVANCING ACROSS THE INTER-MOUNTAIN WEST. IN THE LOW
LEVELS...A COLD FRONT WILL DECELERATE OVER S FL TODAY BEFORE
STALLING ALONG THE FL KEYS OR STRAITS. ELSEWHERE...A LEE TROUGH
WILL STRENGTHEN ALONG THE HIGH PLAINS AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT
ADVANCING SWD INTO THE NRN PLAINS.
...S FL THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING...
LOW-LEVEL UPLIFT ALONG THE COLD FRONT WILL FOSTER ISOLATED TO WIDELY
SCATTERED STORM DEVELOPMENT THIS AFTERNOON INTO EVENING AMIDST A
SEASONABLY MOIST...BUT ONLY MARGINALLY UNSTABLE ENVIRONMENT.
...OK TO LOWER MO VALLEY LATE TONIGHT/EARLY WED...
THE DYNAMIC RESPONSE TO VORTICITY MAXIMA MOVING INTO
SASKATCHEWAN/MANITOBA AND THE CNTRL PLAINS WILL MAINTAIN A SSWLY LLJ
OVER THE GREAT PLAINS WHICH WILL BE DIURNALLY ENHANCED TONIGHT.
THIS FEATURE WILL HASTEN THE NWD FLUX OF AN INCREASINGLY MOIST AIR
MASS BENEATH A PLUME OF STEEP MIDLEVEL LAPSE RATES...YIELDING A
WEAKLY UNSTABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR PARCELS ROOTED AT OR ABOVE 850 MB.
THIS DESTABILIZATION WILL COINCIDE WITH A CORRIDOR OF ISENTROPIC
ASCENT AND WAA ALONG THE NOCTURNAL LLJ WHICH MAY BE SUFFICIENT TO
PROMOTE ISOLATED TSTM DEVELOPMENT LATE TONIGHT.
..MEAD/BUNTING.. 11/19/2013
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