Tuesday, November 19, 2013

DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook

ACUS01 KWNS 191244
SWODY1
SPC AC 191242

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0642 AM CST TUE NOV 19 2013

VALID 191300Z - 201200Z

...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

...SYNOPSIS...
ZONAL FLOW WILL PREVAIL OVER THE CONUS THROUGH EARLY WED. WITHIN
THIS PATTERN...DISTURBANCE NOW CENTERED OVER THE RED RVR VLY WILL
CONTINUE E INTO MS/AL TNGT AND TO THE S ATLANTIC CST BY 12Z WED AS
AN UPSTREAM IMPULSE NOW ENTERING THE NRN GRT BASIN REACHES THE CNTRL
PLNS. WITH THE EXCEPTION OF S FL AND S TX...DRY AIR WILL PREVAIL AT
LWR LVLS. A NARROW RIBBON OF MOISTENING RETURN FLOW
WILL...HOWEVER...SPREAD NWD ACROSS W TX AS LEE TROUGH STRENGTHENS IN
WAKE OF DEPARTING MS-OH VLY SFC RIDGE.

...S FL TODAY...
A FEW MAINLY DIURNAL SHOWERS/STORMS MAY DEVELOP OVER S FL TODAY
ALONG/S OF WEAKENING FRONT MARKING SRN FRINGE OF ERN U.S. SFC HIGH.

...CNTRL/SRN PLNS AND LWR MO VLY LATE TNGT/EARLY WED...
STRENGTHENING WAA/MOISTURE TRANSPORT ATOP RETREATING SFC COOL DOME
MAY SUPPORT PATCHY ELEVATED CONVECTION/POSSIBLE TSTMS LATE IN THE
PERIOD...ESPECIALLY OVER ERN KS WHERE ASCENT WILL BE ENHANCED BY
APPROACH OF GRT BASIN UPR IMPULSE. BUOYANCY SHOULD REMAIN TOO WEAK
FOR AN APPRECIABLE RISK FOR SVR HAIL.

..CORFIDI/PETERS.. 11/19/2013

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