DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook

ACUS01 KWNS 051959
SWODY1
SPC AC 051957

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0157 PM CST TUE NOV 05 2013

VALID 052000Z - 061200Z

...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

...SRN PLAINS...
PREVIOUS FORECAST REASONING APPEARS WELL ON-TRACK WITH NEARLY
NEGLIGIBLE SEVERE POTENTIAL CONFINED TO THE SERN TX PANHANDLE...NWRN
TX AND EXTREME SWRN OK. PRIMARY CHANGE WAS TO CONTRACT THE AREAL
EXTENT OF THE GENERAL TSTM AREA GIVEN THE OVERALL POOR MID-LEVEL
LAPSE RATE ENVIRONMENT.

..GRAMS.. 11/05/2013

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1026 AM CST TUE NOV 05 2013/

...SRN PLAINS THROUGH TONIGHT...
A MIDLEVEL TROUGH OVER THE CENTRAL/SRN ROCKIES WILL PROGRESS EWD TO
THE PLAINS TONIGHT AS CYCLOGENESIS OCCURS ALONG A STALLED SURFACE
FRONT IN KS. THE LOW IS THEN EXPECTED TO DEVELOP NEWD TOWARD THE
LAKE MI VICINITY BY THE END OF THE PERIOD. LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE
RETURN HAS BEEN UNDERWAY ACROSS SRN PLAINS SINCE YESTERDAY...WITH
BOUNDARY LAYER DEWPOINTS NOW RANGING FROM THE MID 50S F IN KS TO
65-70 F IN CENTRAL/S TX. CLOUD COVER IS WIDESPREAD FROM CENTRAL TX
NWD WITHIN THE RETURNING MOISTURE PLUME...WHILE 12Z SOUNDINGS ALSO
SAMPLED POOR MIDLEVEL LAPSE RATES. THE COMBINATION OF CLOUDS
LIMITING SURFACE HEATING AND THE POOR LAPSE RATES WILL LIMIT
BUOYANCY WITHIN THE WARM SECTOR THROUGH MUCH OF THE PERIOD.

THE LONE POTENTIAL EXCEPTION TO THIS SCENARIO WILL BE ACROSS THE SE
TX PANHANDLE AND EXTREME NW TX WHERE SOME CLOUD BREAKS MAY DEVELOP
BY MID-LATE AFTERNOON...AND MLCAPE COULD REACH 500 J/KG. THE
BUOYANCY WILL BE CONFINED TO TEMPERATURES MOSTLY WARMER THAN -20 C
WHICH IS NOT PARTICULARLY FAVORABLE FOR LARGE HAIL GROWTH.
ADDITIONALLY...THIS AREA OF POTENTIALLY GREATER SURFACE HEATING WILL
REMAIN WELL S OF THE COLD FRONT UNTIL AFTER SUNSET...AND THE
POTENTIAL FOR STORM DEVELOPMENT WILL BE LIMITED BY THE LACK OF A
COHERENT DRYLINE. THUS...THE PRIMARY FOCUS FOR STORM DEVELOPMENT
WILL BE THE SURGING COLD FRONT THIS EVENING FROM THE CENTRAL/NE TX
PANHANDLE INTO NW OK...SPREADING SEWD INTO TONIGHT. GIVEN THE
MARGINAL THERMODYNAMIC PROFILES AND THE LIKELIHOOD FOR THE FRONT TO
UNDERCUT CONVECTION...THE SCENARIO APPEARS TO BE A BIT TOO MARGINAL
TO INTRODUCE ANY SEVERE STORM PROBABILITIES TO THE ERN TX
PANHANDLE/NW TX/ADJACENT SW OK FOR THIS EVENING/EARLY TONIGHT.

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