DAY2SVR: Nws Storm Prediction Center Norman Ok

ACUS02 KWNS 100604
SWODY2
SPC AC 100602

DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1202 AM CST SUN NOV 10 2013

VALID 111200Z - 121200Z

...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

...SYNOPSIS...
MODELS CONTINUE TO INDICATE THAT UPPER FLOW WILL REMAIN AMPLIFIED
ACROSS THE PACIFIC...WHILE ALSO BECOMING INCREASINGLY AMPLIFIED
DOWNSTREAM...ACROSS MUCH OF CANADA AND THE U.S. DURING THIS PERIOD.
AS AN INITIAL IMPULSE WITHIN LARGER SCALE EASTERN PACIFIC TROUGHING
SHIFTS TOWARD THE BRITISH COLUMBIA AND PACIFIC NORTHWEST
COAST...UPPER RIDGING APPEARS LIKELY TO BUILD ALONG AN AXIS NORTH
NORTHEAST OF A SUBTROPICAL EASTERN PACIFIC HIGH CENTER THROUGH THE
INTERMOUNTAIN WEST AND ADJACENT NORTHERN ROCKIES. AT THE SAME
TIME...CYCLONIC MID/UPPER FLOW IS EXPECTED TO SHARPEN EAST OF THE
HIGH PLAINS INTO THE ATLANTIC SEABOARD...IN CONJUNCTION WITH THE
SOUTHWARD DEVELOPMENT OF AN EXPANDING/STRENGTHENING SURFACE HIGH
...THE CENTER OF WHICH IS FORECAST TO SHIFT ACROSS THE CENTRAL
INTERNATIONAL BORDER AREA THROUGH THE CENTRAL PLAINS/MID MISSOURI
VALLEY REGION. THE LEADING EDGE OF THIS COLD INTRUSION MAY CURVE
FROM NEAR NORTHERN/MID ATLANTIC COASTAL AREAS THROUGH THE LOWER
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND SOUTHERN PLAINS BY 12Z TUESDAY. WHILE THIS
LATTER FEATURE SHOULD ACT TO GENERALLY REINFORCE STABLE CONDITIONS
WITH LOW CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL...IT STILL APPEARS THAT THE RISK FOR
WEAK THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY MAY NOT BE COMPLETELY NEGLIGIBLE MONDAY
INTO MONDAY NIGHT ACROSS AT LEAST A COUPLE OF AREAS.

...GREAT LAKES REGION...
PRONOUNCED LOWER/MID TROPOSPHERIC COLD ADVECTION ACROSS THE
RELATIVELY WARM LAKE WATERS PROBABLY WILL CONTRIBUTE TO
THERMODYNAMIC PROFILES WITH SUFFICIENT CAPE...THROUGH COLD ENOUGH
LAYERS...TO SUPPORT FAIRLY VIGOROUS LOW-TOPPED CONVECTION CAPABLE OF
PRODUCING LIGHTNING. SOME OF THIS COULD ORGANIZE INTO ELONGATING
BANDS IMPACTING PORTIONS OF THE UPPER PENINSULA OF MICHIGAN BY
MIDDAY...COASTAL NORTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN BY LATE AFTERNOON...AND
PERHAPS THE REMAINDER OF THE LAKE MICHIGAN COAST OF LOWER MICHIGAN
DURING THE EVENING INTO OVERNIGHT HOURS.

...SOUTH CENTRAL PLAINS...
LOW PROBABILITIES FOR THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY STILL APPEAR TO EXIST
DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON/EVENING HOURS...MAINLY WHERE AN AXIS OF
STRONGER PRE-FRONTAL SURFACE HEATING EMANATING FROM THE HIGH PLAINS
INTERSECTS THE AXIS OF A WEAK RETURN FLOW OF MOISTURE...PROVIDING
THE FOCUS FOR WEAK BOUNDARY LAYER DESTABILIZATION. MID/UPPER
FORCING FOR LARGE-SCALE ASCENT PROBABLY WILL BE NEGLIGIBLE...BUT A
ZONE OF ENHANCED LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE/FRONTAL LIFT MAY BE
SUFFICIENT FOR ISOLATED STORM DEVELOPMENT...WITH A TENDENCY TO BE
UNDERCUT BY THE FRONT WHILE DEVELOPING SOUTHWARD/SOUTHWESTWARD.

..KERR.. 11/10/2013

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