ACUS02 KWNS 140602
SWODY2
SPC AC 140600
DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1200 AM CST THU NOV 14 2013
VALID 151200Z - 161200Z
...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...
...SYNOPSIS...
AROUND THE NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF A BLOCKED REGIME OVER THE CENTRAL
AND EASTERN PACIFIC...AN INTENSE MID/UPPER JET APPEARS LIKELY TO
CONTINUE NOSING IN A ANTICYCLONIC BELT NORTH OF THE ALEUTIANS INTO
THE NORTHEAST PACIFIC BY THE BEGINNING OF THIS PERIOD. AND MODELS
CONTINUE TO SUGGEST THAT A VIGOROUS SHORT WAVE IMPULSE EMANATING
FROM THIS FEATURE WILL DIG ACROSS THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST COAST LATE
FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY NIGHT. AS THIS OCCURS...A DOWNSTREAM IMPULSE IS
FORECAST TO ACCELERATE EAST NORTHEAST OF THE SOUTHERN GREAT
BASIN...INTO THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS BY 12Z SATURDAY...CONTRIBUTING
TO SURFACE CYCLOGENESIS TO THE LEE OF THE CENTRAL ROCKIES.
...SOUTHERN PLAINS INTO MID MISSOURI VALLEY...
LINGERING SURFACE RIDGING MAY BE SLOW TO ERODE ACROSS THE WESTERN
GULF COAST REGION...BUT IT STILL APPEARS POSSIBLE THAT AN
INCREASINGLY SUBSTANTIVE INLAND MOISTURE RETURN MAY BEGIN TO
DEVELOP...ON SOUTHERLY FLOW OFF A MODIFYING/DEEPENING MOIST GULF OF
MEXICO BOUNDARY LAYER FRIDAY NIGHT. CAPPING LAYERS ALOFT PROBABLY
WILL PRECLUDE AN APPRECIABLE RISK FOR THUNDERSTORM ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN INTO CENTRAL PLAINS...THOUGH. EVEN WHERE THE RETURNING
MOISTURE ENCOUNTERS STEEPENING ISENTROPIC ASCENT ACROSS THE MID
MISSOURI VALLEY LATE FRIDAY NIGHT...THUNDERSTORM PROBABILITIES STILL
APPEAR NEGLIGIBLE THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY.
...FOUR CORNERS REGION/CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN ROCKIES...
A SOMEWHAT BETTER RISK FOR ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY APPEARS TO EXIST ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN NEAR/EAST OF THE
FOUR CORNERS. THIS IS WHERE MID-LEVEL COOLING/FORCING FOR
LARGE-SCALE ASCENT ASSOCIATED WITH THE LEAD SHORT WAVE IMPULSE WILL
CONTRIBUTE TO DESTABILIZATION DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON HOURS...WITH
CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT AIDED BY FAVORABLE OROGRAPHIC FORCING.
...FLORIDA...
CONVECTION AND EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY DEVELOPING LATER TODAY
AND TONIGHT ACROSS THE CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO MAY APPROACH THE
FLORIDA PENINSULA DURING THE DAY FRIDAY. BUT IT APPEARS PROBABLE
THAT ACTIVITY WILL WEAKEN WITH INCREASINGLY NEGLIGIBLE RISK FOR
LIGHTNING AS IT SPREADS INTO A PROGRESSIVELY STABLE
ENVIRONMENT...BEFORE REACHING COASTAL AREAS.
..KERR.. 11/14/2013
+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-
To unsubscribe from WX-STORM send e-mail to LISTSERV@LISTSERV.ILLINOIS.EDU with
"unsub wx-storm" in the body of your message. For more information write cnovy@cox.net.
Subscribe to:
Post Comments (Atom)
No comments:
Post a Comment