Monday, November 4, 2013

DAY2SVR: Nws Storm Prediction Center Norman Ok

ACUS02 KWNS 041724
SWODY2
SPC AC 041723

DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1123 AM CST MON NOV 04 2013

VALID 051200Z - 061200Z

...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

...SYNOPSIS...
A BROAD POSITIVE-TILT UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH WILL SHIFT EWD FROM THE
WEST INTO THE CNTRL CONUS BY EARLY WED. WEAK SURFACE CYCLOGENESIS
WILL OCCUR FROM THE MID-MO TO UPPER-MS VALLEY DURING THE LATTER HALF
OF THE PERIOD. ATTENDANT COLD FRONT WILL ACCELERATE SEWD FROM CNTRL
INTO THE SRN PLAINS...OVERTAKING A DRYLINE ACROSS WRN TX.

...SRN PLAINS...
A RELATIVELY LETHARGIC SETUP FOR ORGANIZED SEVERE POTENTIAL IS
ANTICIPATED LATE AFTERNOON TO EVENING ON TUE AS ANTECEDENT
THERMODYNAMIC PATTERN REMAINS LARGELY UNFAVORABLE. SLY LOW-LEVEL
FLOW WILL YIELD POLEWARD ADVECTION OF A MODIFIED GULF AIR MASS
CHARACTERIZED BY 50S TO LOWER 60S SURFACE DEW POINTS. THIS SHOULD
AID IN EXTENSIVE CLOUDS/RAIN DEVELOPING NWD THROUGH AT LEAST EARLY
D2. IN THE WAKE OF THIS WAA-DRIVEN ACTIVITY...SURFACE HEATING MAY
REMAIN LIMITED IN AMPLITUDE AND SPATIAL EXTENT TO NEAR THE DRYLINE
IN THE ERN TX PANHANDLE/WRN OK. CONVERGENCE ALONG THE DRYLINE SHOULD
BE WEAK AND DIURNAL SURFACE-BASED INITIATION MAY FAIL TO BE
REALIZED. MORE PROBABLE INITIATION WILL OCCUR WITH THE FRONT DURING
THE EVENING...BUT SHOULD BE QUICKLY UNDERCUT. THIS ALONG WITH MODEST
MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND MLCAPE HOLDING AOB 500 J/KG SHOULD
MITIGATE SEVERE HAIL/WIND POTENTIAL DESPITE STRONG MID/HIGH-LEVEL
SWLYS.

..GRAMS.. 11/04/2013

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