MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 2002

ACUS11 KWNS 010942
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 010941
NYZ000-NJZ000-PAZ000-MDZ000-WVZ000-011115-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2002
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0441 AM CDT FRI NOV 01 2013

AREAS AFFECTED...PARTS OF SRN NY/THE ERN HALF OF PA/WRN NJ/NRN MD

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 558...

VALID 010941Z - 011115Z

THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 558
CONTINUES.

SUMMARY...A FORCED CONVECTIVE LINE CONTINUES CROSSING THE
APPALACHIANS...ALONG WITH ATTENDANT/LOCAL RISK FOR DAMAGING WINDS.
A DOWNSTREAM WW SPREADING ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF PA AND VICINITY
WILL LIKELY BE REQUIRED.

DISCUSSION...LATEST RADAR LOOPS SHOW A NARROW/LOW-TOPPED CONVECTIVE
LINE MARCHING EWD ACROSS WRN NY/CENTRAL PA AND SWD ACROSS MD/ERN WV.
WHILE NO LIGHTNING HAS BEEN OBSERVED WITH THE LINE...LOCALLY
STRONG/DAMAGING GUSTS CONTINUE...AS VERY STRONG LOW-LEVEL WINDS
CONTINUE TO BE LOCALLY MANIFEST AT THE SURFACE COINCIDENT WITH THE
CONVECTIVE LINE. DESPITE A LACK OF INSTABILITY...EXPECT CONVECTION
TO REMAIN LINEARLY ORGANIZED AS IT CONTINUES SHIFTING EWD/ENEWD
AHEAD OF THE STRONG UPPER SYSTEM AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT. AS THE
STORMS GRADUALLY SHIFT E OF THE EXISTING WW WITH TIME...NEW WW
ISSUANCE IS ANTICIPATED.

..GOSS/MEAD.. 11/01/2013

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...OKX...ALY...PHI...BGM...CTP...LWX...

LAT...LON 42727732 42817516 42247450 40467456 39957505 39497728
39557846 40677790 42727732

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