Saturday, November 23, 2013

MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 2036

ACUS11 KWNS 240125
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 240124
TXZ000-NMZ000-240530-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2036
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0724 PM CST SAT NOV 23 2013

AREAS AFFECTED...SERN NM...TX TRANS-PECOS/PERMIAN BASIN NEWD TO THE
LOWER ROLLING PLAINS

CONCERNING...WINTER MIXED PRECIPITATION

VALID 240124Z - 240530Z

SUMMARY...MIX OF FREEZING RAIN /WITH RATES NEAR 0.1 IN PER HR/ AND
SLEET IS EXPECTED TO OCCUR THROUGH THE NIGHT FROM SERN NM/TX
TRANS-PECOS NEWD TO THE LOWER ROLLING PLAINS.

DISCUSSION...LATEST RAP/SREF MODEL GUIDANCE INDICATES ZONE OF MODEST
LOW-LEVEL WAA/ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE WILL BE FOCUSED OVER SERN NM AND W
TX TONIGHT. THIS MESOSCALE ASCENT COMBINED WITH INCREASING
LARGE-SCALE SUPPORT ASSOCIATED WITH APPROACHING CLOSED LOW OVER SRN
CA IS AIDING IN BLOSSOMING AREA OF PRECIPITATION OVER THE
TRANS-PECOS AND PERMIAN BASIN. THE 00Z RAOB FROM MAF SUPPORTS
FREEZING RAIN...GIVEN SUB-FREEZING TEMPERATURES FROM THE SURFACE TO
1 KM AGL SURMOUNTED BY A WARM LAYER /WITH MAX TEMP AROUND 5 DEG C/
FROM 1-3 KM AGL. WEAK MUCAPE IS ALSO ROOTED NEAR 700 MB...WHICH WILL
SUPPORT ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS AND ENHANCE THE POTENTIAL FOR HEAVIER
FREEZING RAIN AND SLEET. WITH TIME...FREEZING RAIN/SLEET WILL EXPAND
NEWD FROM THE TRANS-PECOS/PERMIAN BASIN INTO THE LOWER ROLLING
PLAINS. RECENT HOURLY OBS AND LATEST EXPERIMENTAL HI-RES ENSEMBLE
GUIDANCE SUGGESTS FREEZING RAINFALL RATES WILL AVERAGE AROUND 0.1
IN/HR.

..GARNER.. 11/24/2013

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...SJT...LUB...MAF...ABQ...EPZ...

LAT...LON 34230315 34490107 33750013 32580015 30870175 30020323
30370444 31970523 34230315

+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-
To unsubscribe from WX-STORM send e-mail to LISTSERV@LISTSERV.ILLINOIS.EDU with
"unsub wx-storm" in the body of your message. For more information write cnovy@cox.net.

No comments: