MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 2037

ACUS11 KWNS 240347
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 240347
TXZ000-OKZ000-NMZ000-240745-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2037
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0947 PM CST SAT NOV 23 2013

AREAS AFFECTED...TX/OK PANHANDLES...PORTIONS OF FAR E-CNTRL/NERN NM

CONCERNING...HEAVY SNOW

VALID 240347Z - 240745Z

SUMMARY...SNOWFALL RATES NEAR 1 IN/HR ARE LIKELY TONIGHT OVER THE
TX/OK PANHANDLES AS WELL AS PORTIONS OF FAR E-CNTRL/NERN NM.

DISCUSSION...UPPER AIR OBSERVATIONS AT 00Z AND LATEST SATELLITE
IMAGERY SHOW A CLOSED LOW CENTERED OVER SRN CA...WITH A LEAD WAVE
ADVANCING EWD INTO THE SRN HIGH PLAINS. FORCING FOR ASCENT
ASSOCIATED WITH THIS WAVE COMBINED WITH MODEST LOW/MID-LEVEL WAA IS
SUPPORTING A SHIELD OF PRECIPITATION EXPANDING NEWD FROM FAR ERN NM
INTO THE WRN TX PANHANDLE. BOTH THE 00Z AMA RAOB...AS WELL AS RAP
AND NAM FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUPPORT SNOW AS THE PREDOMINANT
PRECIPITATION TYPE...WHICH IS CONFIRMED BY 03Z OBSERVATION AT CVS.
DESPITE MARGINAL MESOSCALE FORCING FOR ASCENT...UVV/S MAY STRENGTHEN
SUFFICIENTLY WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE UPPER DISTURBANCE SUCH THAT
SNOWFALL RATES NEAR 1 IN/HR WILL BE POSSIBLE. A DRY LAYER OF AIR IN
THE 0-3 KM LAYER IS CURRENTLY LOCATED OVER THE CNTRL/ERN TX
PANHANDLE...AND NWD INTO THE OK PANHANDLE. HOWEVER...THE VERTICAL
COLUMN IS FORECAST TO SATURATE QUICKLY BETWEEN 06-12Z AS WET BULB
PROCESSES ACCOMPANY THE NEWD EXPANDING PRECIPITATION SHIELD...WHICH
WILL AID IN A PERIOD OF ENHANCED SNOWFALL RATES DURING SUNDAY
MORNING.

..GARNER.. 11/24/2013

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...LUB...AMA...ABQ...

LAT...LON 36540015 34890012 34190108 33630318 34190382 35790363
36830252 36960109 36540015

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