Sunday, December 29, 2013

DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook

ACUS01 KWNS 291622
SWODY1
SPC AC 291620

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1020 AM CST SUN DEC 29 2013

VALID 291630Z - 301200Z

...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

...EASTERN NC...
A VIGOROUS SHORTWAVE TROUGH CURRENTLY OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN U.S.
WILL TRACK NORTHEASTWARD AND INTO NEW ENGLAND BY LATE TONIGHT. THE
ASSOCIATED SURFACE COLD FRONT PRESENTLY EXTENDS FROM CENTRAL VA
SOUTHWARD INTO THE CAROLINAS. STRONG SOUTHERLY FLOW AHEAD OF THE
FRONT IS MOISTENING AND SLOWLY DESTABILIZING THE AIR MASS OVER PARTS
OF NC...WHERE DEWPOINTS ARE IN THE LOWER 60S. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
OCCASIONAL THUNDERSTORMS ARE OCCURRING ALONG A PRE-FRONTAL LINE THAT
WILL AFFECT EASTERN NC IN THE NEXT 1-2 HOURS. IT APPEARS UNLIKELY
THAT DESTABILIZATION WILL BE SUFFICIENT TO ALLOW SURFACE-BASED
CONVECTION IN THIS REGION...AND THEREFORE THE SEVERE THREAT IS LOW.
NEVERTHELESS...THE STRENGTH OF THE LOW LEVEL SHEAR AND MARGINAL LOW
LEVEL THERMODYNAMIC STRUCTURES SUGGEST THAT GUSTY/DAMAGING WINDS OR
A BRIEF TORNADO CANNOT BE COMPLETELY RULED OUT.

..HART/MARSH.. 12/29/2013

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